EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rallies To Near 157.00 As Yen Weakens Across The Board

By Sagar Dua of FXStreet

Friday, February 28, 2025 9:20 AM EDT

EUR/JPY surges to near 157.00 as soft Tokyo CPI data sends the Yen on the backfoot.
Moderate Tokyo CPI growth is expected to weigh on BoJ hawkish bets.
Steady German HICP growth is unlikely to restrict the ECB from easing monetary policy further.

The EUR/JPY pair rallies to near 157.00 in the North American session on Friday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming across the board after the release of the soft Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February.

Japanese Yen PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.08%	0.06%	0.66%	-0.16%	0.31%	0.52%	0.31%
EUR	0.08%		0.15%	0.75%	-0.06%	0.40%	0.62%	0.40%
GBP	-0.06%	-0.15%		0.59%	-0.22%	0.25%	0.46%	0.24%
JPY	-0.66%	-0.75%	-0.59%		-0.80%	-0.35%	-0.14%	-0.35%
CAD	0.16%	0.06%	0.22%	0.80%		0.46%	0.68%	0.46%
AUD	-0.31%	-0.40%	-0.25%	0.35%	-0.46%		0.21%	-0.00%
NZD	-0.52%	-0.62%	-0.46%	0.14%	-0.68%	-0.21%		-0.22%
CHF	-0.31%	-0.40%	-0.24%	0.35%	-0.46%	0.00%	0.22%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Statistics Bureau of Japan reported that the Tokyo headline CPI decelerated significantly to 2.9% from 3.4% in January. In the same period, the Tokyo CPI ex. Fresh Food rose by 2.2%, slower than estimates of 2.3% and the former release of 2.5%. Soft Tokyo CPI data is likely to weigh on market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) outperforms its major peers despite fears that United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda will be unfavorable for the Eurozone economy. On Wednesday, Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on cars and other things imported from the Eurozone sooner.

On the domestic front, hotter-than-expected flash German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for February is unlikely to ease market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5% in the policy meeting on Thursday.

German HICP rose steadily by 2.8%, faster than estimates of 2.7% on year. Month-on-month HICP grew at a faster pace of 0.6% than expectations of 0.5%. In January, the underlying inflation data deflated by 0.2%.

EUR/JPY recovers strongly after revisiting an almost seven-month low of 155.15 on Friday. However, the near-term outlook of the cross is still bearish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping downwards to near 158.00.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounced back to the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates that bearish momentum has ended. However, the negative bias remains intact.

More recovery in the EUR/JPY pair above the February 25 high of 157.30 would allow it to gain further towards the 20-day EMA around 158.00, followed by the February 19 high of 159.14.

On the flip side, a downside move by the pair below the intraday low of 154.80 would expose it to the August 5 low of 154.40 and the 19-month low of 153.17.

EUR/JPY daily chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

More By This Author:

WTI Retreats From $70 As Trump Threatens Additional 10% Tariff On China
EUR/USD Stays Under Pressure As Soft Inflation Data Paves Way For ECB Rate Cut
GBP/JPY Jumps To Near 189.60 Ahead Of Trump-Starmer Meet In Washington

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

less

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.