US Dollar Super Cycle Update
My first chart is a 27 year Weekly showing a Fractal comparing the price action we are seeing today against the USD’s last Super Cycle top in 2001. The USD’s Super Cycles last 15 years Low to Low on average and my chart shows the critical role that the 200wma plays in the USD’s Bull and Bear phases.
Clearly, the USD is teetering at critical support right now as my chart shows what happened the last tine in 2002 when it lost this key, long term, moving average. My second weekly chart shows a close up of the current Fractal Blue box in my first chart.
Shorter term, the USD had another failed Trading Cycle on day 17, confirming for me that early August was a TCL/DCL and not the longer Intermediate Low I had been looking for. My normal timing band for a TCL/DCL on the dollar is 17-24 days so we have entered the early part of that band.
Meanwhile, here is the price action I am seeing in Gold and GDX… If my Super Cycle analysis on the USD is correct, Gold and PM’s should lead the broader CRB into a new Bull Market in the years ahead.
Disclosure: None.
Gold isn't doing so hot given the devaluation of the US dollar which is the only reason it has risen at all. The dollar devaluation is the key here although the negative effects of it won't be felt this year. If it continues it could look quite bad a few years from now, or even next year. It is hard to say.