Stocks Are Down, And May Be Heading Even Lower.
At this point, I’m just about ready to retire because I am seeing things I have no memory of or have never seen before.
The USDCHF fell by more than 3.8%, a monumental move. It was either a newfound flight to safety or a flight out of US assets altogether. But whatever it was, money quickly left the US today and returned to Switzerland.
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But that wasn’t all because the EURUSD strengthened by more than 2%, while the USDJPY also strengthened by more than 2%. It would seem that every currency is now seen as either safer than US dollars or, more importantly, is seeing a massive flight of money out of US assets that is heading back home.
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This is probably why Treasury yield continued to surge, with the 30-year closing around 4.87, its highest close since mid-January. Given the market dynamics, the 30-year could not only be heading back to 5% but to a new high of over 5.1%.
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More interestingly, the recent rate rise has much to do with the increase in the term premium again. The 10-year term premium is back to its cycle high. This is investors’ way of saying they demand higher rates in return for the risk.
I will say that I was surprised to see that the S&P 500 was down only 3.5%, given some of the flows in FX and Bonds, I would have expected it to be down more. It was down more at one point, which amounted to about 6% around lunchtime, before returning in the day’s final half. When looking at the S&P 500 futures, it appears to have a big bearish rising megaphone pattern, and at least based on that pattern, it would suggest that all the post-tariff relief celebrations are probably gone by tomorrow.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. ...
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