The Bond Market Breaks Trump, Remains Undefeated…

By Michael J. Kramer of Mott Capital Management

Wednesday, April 9, 2025 5:48 PM EDT

Image Source: Pixabay

It took a few days and a near-bond market meltdown to break Trump, but he finally broke. As I noted yesterday, it was starting to look ugly out there, and last night’s bond market rollercoaster rise was unsettling.The market continues to defend its title as heavyweight champ.

The signs of something breaking were intense yesterday and even more intense this morning. That all eased after the announcement that Trump would pause the tariffs for 90 days, except for China. If anyone remembers the 2018 and 2019 periods, it was a chronic ride of ups and downs, with the market living by tweet. It was an impossible period, and this seems like it can be nothing but worse than that.

I do not know how China will respond to Team Trump’s latest upping of the tariffs, but I’m guessing they will. The easiest way for them to respond is to continue to weaken the USDCNY. But I do not think they are going to be very happy about this at all.

As for stocks, it was a reflexive move due to that implied volatility reset we have come to love. With the VIX trading around 50, the news immediately relieved that pressure point, with the VIX dropping to around 32. It is unclear where the VIX will settle, but given that the President is willing to let the bond market go to the edge, I would think that the VIX should have a higher floor than it did before the Tariff tantrum.

As for everything else, we’ll see what happens.

More By This Author:

The Market Is Starting To Look Really Ugly
A Mechanical Implied Volatility Reset
Rates Soar Ahead Of Three Big Treasury Auctions

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

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