S&P 500 broke out of its declining resistance line, and ran into the heavy resistance zone. While I don‘t doubt about the rally continuing and taking S&P 500 hundreds of points higher, a decent pullback would be most healthy here. The series of daily gaps though speaks as to the budding trend‘s strength – and I‘m bringing you a couple of interest rate sentivive picks in today‘s analysis.

Let‘s recount the key turning points this week, reversing the bearish trend in place:

• Powell delivering hawkish pause, but not showing resolve to hike more
• the Fed prefers to keep rates where they are even if inflation got sticky and trends up
• sharp dialing back of manufacturing PMI, bolstering hard landing trades
• NFPs and continuing claims showing we‘re indeed in latter innings of goldilocks
• USDJPY move confirming the top in yields as in
• USDJPY serving as harbinger of BoJ policy change (upcoming YCC exit)

That‘s the big picture view – before getting carried away, keep in mind that soft landing hopes will prove not to have been vanquished – just look at rising job openings, construction growth, still strong consumer balance sheets and wage growth. The Treasury debt issuance Q4 projections so embraced by the markets is but one helpful tool to calm bond markets… Just wait for upcoming CPI mid Nov to prove my sticky inflation point as the effect of rising oil prices has far from played out.

This is the chart I posted late Friday on our intraday channel for stocks – more levels and picks follow in the chart section – as you can see, we‘re at a pretty congested area.

 I‘m pretty sure you've noticed the expanded format of daily articles (chiefly for premium clients)  – the below slide is but one talked there in detail.

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