The recent run of bad news from China looks like it may have run its course with analysts' hopes rising that the worst may be behind China.
Hopes for a more positive Q4 are starting to build with strong levels of fiscal support and the latest PMI prints out of China show moves into expansionary prints above 50.
At the RBA’s last meeting, they kept open the prospect of another rate hike, and that all bodes well for a recovery in the AUD. The short AUD position is extreme and any positive news should lift the AUD.
Also, if oil prices pull back against their recent run higher that should support the AUD against the CAD. Also, notice that inflation is higher in Australia than in Canada and that should support the RBA/BoC interest rate differentials.
Major Trade Risks: The major trade risks here are that copper prices fall and China’s GDP is weak for Q4.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
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