A hawkish Federal Reserve and expectations of increasing interest rates have kept major stocks pressured over the month of September.
The higher rates for longer narrative from the latest Fed meeting has helped push up yields and US interest rate expectations which are naturally more challenging conditions for US companies. Higher levels of debt repayment, lower levels of consumer disposable income, and concerns about how high rates will actually go are all a natural headwind for US stocks.
However, do you know that there is a strong seasonal pattern for the 4th quarter for US stocks, if you take a look at the Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 you can see that from October through to December.
There is a tendency for stocks to gain. Will that play out again this year? The key answer to that question will come from the Fed but this season or pattern is worth noting.
Major Trade Risks: The major trade risks here are that previous seasonal patterns do not necessarily repeat themselves each year and perhaps some incoming US data will alter the expectations for the path of US rates
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
