• For the past five trading sessions, the GBP/USD currency pair has been trying to rebound upwards, but its gains have been capped at 1.2793 before settling around the 1.2760 level at the beginning of trading on Tuesday.
• According to the economic calendar, the GBP/USD pair may take cues from high-level US and UK data this week.
• The United States will release producer price index and consumer price index figures, and weaker inflation numbers could strengthen the argument for interest rate cuts in September.

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Meanwhile, UK jobs data may reflect weak wage growth, while CPI figures may point to a recovery in inflation. Overall, upbeat UK economic figures may reassure GBP traders that the Bank of England is likely to keep borrowing costs steady at its next meeting, as the previous rate cut decision was a narrow vote. 

On the other hand, weak UK data could reinforce views of another easing move, which could support the GBP/USD pair’s downside. Also, US retail sales and consumer confidence data are due out by the end of the week. Similarly, that could weigh on overall market sentiment, as previous jobs releases have spurred risk-off and risk-off flows.

According to Forex trading, after sharp selling in late July and early August, the GBP/USD exchange rate has stabilized. Furthermore, there are several reasons to believe that it may have room to regain more of its lost ground in the coming days, with a retest of the 200-week moving average at around 1.2845 being a likely possibility. The GBP/USD pair had settled above its 200-day moving average at 1.2661 last week before paring some of its recent losses, but improving risk appetite in global markets, the latest US election polls, and consensus forecasts for inflation on both sides of the Atlantic are among the factors that could help lift it forward. 

According to a new poll conducted by the New York Times/Siena College, "Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in three key states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Betting markets currently show the following odds of winning the election: Harris 52%, Trump 45%." Added, "Recent trends in polls have been favorable to Harris across a wide range of voter demographics, not just the young. We have agreed with our friends/strategic partners in the Republican Party that a 5% increase for Harris in national polls is a soft trigger for panic." 

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has turned the tables on former President Donald Trump in several recent polls, undermining a major source of support for the US dollar. Furthermore, its outlook through the end of the year as Trump’s protectionist trade policy agenda and use of tariffs is quite bullish for US business investment, production, employment and GDP.
 

Technical forecasts for the GPB/USD pair today: 

The GBPUSD pair has formed lower highs connected to a trend line that has been held since the third week of July. Technically, the price is testing this resistance area and selling may resume soon. Currently, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the stronger resistance path is to the downside or that selling is likely to gain strength rather than reverse. Also, the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point coincides with the trend line resistance to add more strength as a ceiling. 

In this case, GBPUSD could fall to lows around 1.2675 or lower. Likewise, stochastic appears to be moving lower and has room to fall before reaching the oversold zone to reflect exhaustion among sellers. The RSI is also creeping lower, so the price could follow suit as the downward momentum continues. On the other hand, a break above the trend line could indicate that a reversal is in the works.

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