Daily Market Outlook - Tuesday, Aug. 13
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Following mixed signals from Wall Street overnight, Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Tuesday. Traders appeared hesitant to make big changes in positioning ahead of the release of important US inflation numbers later in the day and tomorrow, which are expected to have an impact on the outlook for US interest rates. Tuesday's post-holiday trading has seen a significant increase in the Japanese stock market, building on the gains of the previous session. Following conflicting overnight indications from Wall Street, the Nikkei 225 is rising more than 2.5 percent to above the 36k handle. Strong advances across all sectors are being led by index heavyweights and technology firms.
Regarding the US Federal Reserve's September interest rate reduction, there is yet hope. With a 51.5 percent probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points and a 48.5 percent probability of a rate cut of 50 basis points, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently forecasting a rate decrease in September.
Before attention turns to the consumer price index data for July, which are slated for Wednesday, U.S. producer pricing data, which are coming later in the day, are expected to influence markets. This week's data dump is completed on Thursday with the retail sales report.
Later in the day, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak, so investors will also be watching for his remarks. Meanwhile, UK wage data is expected to dominate European hours.
As for the conversation between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, attendees had to wait a while for it to start because of a long delay brought on by technical issues that prevented many users from accessing the live feed.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
- Tech Problems Overshadowed Trump-Musk X’s Interview
- Australia’s Wages Elevated, Underlining Price Pressures
- BofA CEO Reveals Problems With US Consumer Money
- Japan’s PPI Stay Elevated, Yen Weakness Fuels Import Costs
- Japan's Parliament To Hold Aug 23 Session On BoJ Rate Hike
- Japan Stocks Gains As Nikkei Climbs Above 2% After Holiday
- Chipmakers Face A Looming Crisis In Labour
- UKMTO Reports Incidence Southwest Of Yemen's Hodeidah
- US And South Korea Start Joint Military Exercises Next Week
- US Warns Iran Attack On Israel Could Come This Week
- Oil Prices Ease As Markets Refocus On Demand Worries
- XAU Trims Overnight Gains Ahead Of US Inflation Data
- Israel Puts Military On High Alert, US Sends Assets To Middle East
- Putin: Recent Ukraine’s Attack, Aimed At Ceasefire Negotiations
- FitchRatings Downgraded Isreal From A+ To A, Outlook Negative
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
- EUR/USD: 1.0820-25 (2.4B), 1.0840 (641M), 1.0865-75 (1.4B), 1.0900 (2.0B)
- EUR/USD: 1.0930 (896M), 1.0960 (849M)
- USD/JPY: 146.25 (1.2B), 147.60 (350M). AUD/JPY: 95.50 (360M)
- GBP/JPY: 185.50 (394M)
- GBP/USD: 1.2850 (300M). EUR/GBP: 0.8580 (230M)
- AUD/USD: 0.6575 (1.5B), 0.6675 (1.1B). AUD/NZD: 1.1050 (553M)
CFTC Data As Of 09/8/24
- Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 25,312 contracts to 222,856
- Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 57,309 contracts to 881,533
- Swiss franc posts net short position of -22,073 contracts
- British pound net long position is 74,399 contracts
- Euro net long position is 33,580 contracts
- Japanese yen net short position is -11,354 contracts
- Bitcoin net long position is 538 contracts
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5150
- Daily VWAP bullish
- Weekly VWAP bearish
- Above 5388 opens 5470
- Primary resistance 5470
- Primary objective is 5000
(Click on image to enlarge)
EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.09
- Daily VWAP bullish
- Weekly VWAP bullish
- Above 1.0975 opens 1.1075
- Primary resistance 1.0981
- Primary objective is 1.07
(Click on image to enlarge)
GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.29
- Daily VWAP bullish
- Weekly VWAP bearish
- Below 1.2670 opens 1.2450
- Primary support is 1.2690
- Primary objective 1.2450
(Click on image to enlarge)
USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 149
- Daily VWAP bullish
- Weekly VWAP bearish
- Above 150 opens 153
- Primary support 140
- Primary objective is 153
(Click on image to enlarge)
XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2345
- Daily VWAP bullish
- Weekly VWAP bullish
- Below 2400 opens 2330
- Primary support 2300
- Primary objective is 2598
(Click on image to enlarge)
BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 58000
- Daily VWAP bearish
- Weekly VWAP bearish
- Above 61000 opens 68000
- Primary support is 50000
- Primary objective is 70000
(Click on image to enlarge)
More By This Author:
Daily Market Outlook - Monday, Aug. 12
SP500 Weekly Wrap & Daily Trade Plan - Friday, August 9
FTSE Bid As Markets Continue To Rebound From Monday’s Rout
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