Crypto Markets: Bitcoin Poised For Sustained Bounce
Crypto markets continue to show evidence of relative strength when compared to the recent performances of most other major asset classes and this should lend some additional credibility to the space after notable investors and economists have publicly turned course in their opinions. Even billionaire Mark Cuban has already made it clear that he is open to changing his mind on cryptocurrency as an investment and these are the types of cultural announcements that often preceded major price rallies in the other major asset classes. Whether this alone is enough to keep BTC/USD prices above the $10,000 level remains debatable but recent price action suggests that this bullish outcome has become increasingly likely.
Chart: Author via TradingView
Of course, it remains obvious that cryptocurrency assets have not been spared from the incredible volatility that has already been present in 2020. Valuations in the BTC/USD crypto pair reached highs for the year just before the middle of February and the uptrend that characterized this prior price move was marked by measured stability. On the daily charts, BTC/USD initially broke through its Ichimoku Cloud structure as early as January and this appeared to set the stage for continued price rallies in cryptocurrencies relative to the fiat majors. In the periods that followed, market trend activity suggested most investors were involved in a heavy rush to cash that helped propel valuations in the U.S. dollar against most of the major cryptocurrency assets.
Chart: Author via TradingView
However, recent price action in BTC/USD suggests that these trends have already started to normalize because valuations are quickly approaching their pre-crisis levels. As a result, similar price trends structures have started to materialize in the ETH/USD cryptocurrency pair and this shows that the buying has been broad-based and diversified across several major cryptocurrency assets. Ethereum still has a ways to go before reaching its previous highs for 2020 but the ETH/USD crypto pair has clearly broken through its Ichimoku Cloud structure (Kumo) and this suggests a re-rest of those highs should be encountered within the next 1-2 months.
Chart: Author via TradingView
Bitcoin now appears to be the major beneficiary of these trends, as the LTC/BTC crypto pair continues to fall to new depths in the current downtrend. These trends became much more obvious during the month of March but there has been very little to be seen in the way of corrective upside. Bitcoin clearly has the upper hand at this stage but this could change if upcoming resistance levels in the BTC/USD cryptocurrency pair stem further gains. Ethereum could turn out to be a longer-term winner if an overbought market fails to react to new highs in BTC/USD. For all of these reasons, we can see that it is always best to take a comprehensive technical analysis reading of the crypto markets whenever live positions are considered.
At this stage, traders must remember that we are not yet out of the woods in terms of containing the COVID-19 pandemic and this will continue to be a factor that could impact cryptocurrency valuations in the weeks ahead. However, at the same time, it does not appear that cryptocurrencies have been more vulnerable than stocks when the recent volatility metrics have started spiking and this tells us that crypto coins have not been associated with elevated risk fears in relation to the other major asset classes.