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Alongside equities, it's been a rough week for crude oil. On catalysts of assumed weaker demand and supply news out of the Middle East, front month WTI futures are already down 5.56% month to date with the steepest declines occurring on Tuesday. As shown below, crude has been falling throughout the past year and these most recent declines have brought the price of black gold to the low end of its range. Whereas last fall it was in the mid-$90 range, this week it moved into the $60 range (today prices are rebounding back above $70). The only other times in the past year that WTI was below $70 was briefly back in December. As we noted in Monday's Closer, although front month futures are hitting the low end of the past year's range, those prices are actually at a premium compared to out-month futures as crude markets are currently in backwardation.

Expanding the timeframe out, below we show the price of crude over the past five years. Again, the most recent prior instance of WTI having a $60 handle was last December, and there have been a handful of other brief periods of price being as low. Since Q2 2021 as crude prices recovered from the pandemic, the high $60 range roughly has marked a notable level of support .

That decline in crude oil has resulted in lower gas prices. Seasonally, it is typical for prices at the pump to roll over during the summer months with declines accelerating in the fall. This year, however, prices have been falling since mid-spring. According to AAA, the national average for a gallon of gasoline yesterday was at $3.31, which is the lowest price since late February. That is the lowest price of gas on 9/4 since 2021 ($3.19).

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