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Reader CoRev asserts IEA forecasts are biased. Here are forecasts from US DoE Energy Information Administration.

Figure 1: World coal consumption, 1980-2021, mn short tons (blue), and forecasts 2022 and 2025. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: EIA, EIA (Oct 2023), NBER.

Note 2022 is lower than 2021 in the EIA forecast, contrasting with the July 2023 IEA projection.  While IEA projections (displayed in this post) do exhibit bias, Liao et al. (2016) show that up to that date, most of the bias was due to upwardly biased GDP forecasts, which are a key input into the projections.

IEA projects 8.38 bn short tons in 2024, while DoE EIA reference scenario projects 8.34 bn short tons in 2025. Log linear interpolation indicates 8.38 bn short tons in 2024. No big divergence at the moment, as the two forecasts are similar.

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