Commodity price indexes through June have turned down, excepting energy. Front month futures prices suggests a further abatement of upward commodity price pressure, including in energy.

Figure 1: Commodity price indexes for energy (bold blue), non-energy (bold tan), agricultural (green), metals and minerals (red), base metals (pink), precious metals (purple), all 2010=100, all on a log scale. The last observation is in June. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded gray. Source: World Bank accessed 7/24/2022, and NBER. 

Notice that through June, all indices are declining from March/April peaks, saving energy (these are averages of daily data). Front-month futures indicate downward movement in July, as shown in these graphs (all sourced from Macrotrends).

Crude oil – Brent

Natural gas- Henry Hub

Wheat

Corn

Soybean

Lumber

Platinum

 Palladium

Obviously, some futures prices are not following these patters; for instance natural gas in Europe:

Natural Gas – TTF Dutch (not on a log scale)

Of course, this is conditioning on the market’s expectations regarding, for instance, Russian actions on natural gas supplies to Europe, the impact of sanctions on Russian oil exports, and what happens in China regarding energy demand and/or production in the face of lockdowns.

More By This Author: