Photo by Zlaťáky.cz on Unsplash

Chris Puplava, Chief Investment Officer at Financial Sense Wealth Management, recently earned well-deserved recognition for his spot-on call in mid-October when he warned of a potential short- to intermediate-term peak in precious metals, citing how gold and silver had become “extremely overheated” after a parabolic rise (see Are Stocks and Gold Headed for a Reset?, airing October 17, 2025).

True to his forecast, both metals topped out almost immediately after his warning. Chris explained that his team was tactically trimming back on their precious metals positions during that run-up—not because their strategic conviction had changed, but to prudently lock in gains and manage near-term risk. This wasn’t a reversal of their long-term bullish view on the metals complex, but a disciplined response to market conditions that had become stretched.

Now that gold and silver have sharply pulled back from their recent all-time highs of $4,381 and $54.49, Chris returned to Financial Sense Newshour to share his updated outlook, highlighting the key technical levels he’s monitoring.

To listen to this full podcast and conversation with Chris Puplava, see Repo Rumbles & Precious Metal Pivots: What’s Ahead for Investors

Short-Term Jitters, Long-Term Confidence

According to Puplava, “The short-term [outlook] is bearish; however, the intermediate term and long term are still bullish.”

He breaks it down like this: gold is trading below its 20-day moving average, signaling a short-term downtrend, but remains above the 50-day, which keeps the intermediate outlook intact. The key, he notes, is watching how gold behaves at these technical levels. If gold slips below the 50-day, “we likely have a retest of the 200-day, which could mean a further 500-point or more drop.” But if it can “dig in its heels” and reclaim the 20-day average, “then I would say that this correction is over and we’re likely headed higher.”

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Stockcharts.com

Silver’s Setup: Near-Term Risk, Key Levels

Silver, often the wilder sibling of gold, mirrors this limbo. Puplava’s technical eye spots a possible “inverse head and shoulders bottom” forming—one of those classic reversal patterns that gets technicians excited. But the key, he says, is for silver to clear the $50 level:

“If silver can clear $50, to me, that would mark a short-term head and shoulders bottom. And the target on that would be roughly $53.50 on the upside.”

Until then, both metals are “below the 20-day,” with near-term risk still skewed to the downside. In plain English: the correction isn’t necessarily over, but the groundwork for a new rally could be forming.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Stockcharts.com

Lessons from the Past: 2019 (and the 1970s) All Over Again?

To understand today’s market, Puplava draws on history. He recalls 2019, when gold experienced a similar run-up and subsequent correction. Back then, the Fed ramped up money printing (quantitative easing), and gold “took off once again and ultimately would exceed over $2,000 an ounce less than a year later.” For Puplava, a repeat performance is possible if “the Fed is forced to ramp up money printing on top of rate cuts.”

But he also cautions against assuming history will repeat exactly. In prior cycles—like the inflationary 1970s or the mid-2000s—extreme overbought conditions led to major peaks sometimes followed by years of sideways action. Overall, the important thing is to manage risk effectively by increasing or decreasing exposure based on the data and being mindful of longer-term trends.

Tactical View: Gold Highly Overbought

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Financial Sense Wealth Management, Bloomberg

Gold’s Role Is Changing: More Than Just an Inflation Hedge

What makes today unique? For Puplava, it’s the shifting role of gold in the global financial system. Historically, gold’s fortunes have moved in opposition to the dollar or in tandem with inflation expectations. But in recent years, those relationships have broken down:

“We were seeing gold go up along with the dollar. We were seeing gold rally with a rise in real interest rates…There was just this persistent bullish trend in gold regardless of prior historical correlations.”

That, he says, signals something bigger: a loss of confidence in government bonds and fiat currencies. “Gold is taking over as the premier reserve asset of the world for central bankers, for global investors,” he asserts, citing sky-high debt in developed countries and turmoil in the geopolitical arena as reasons investors are turning to gold.

In his view, gold is “preferred over government bonds, developed and emerging market, and it’s preferred over foreign currencies.” This dynamic suggests that even after a sharp correction, gold might not see the deep, prolonged declines of past cycles.

The Bottom Line: Eyes on the Prize, Feet on the Ground

So, where does this leave investors? For Puplava, it’s all about vigilance. He’s watching the moving averages very closely on whether the correction has run its course or if more downside lies ahead. But his big-picture thesis remains: gold and silver are in a bull market, and the forces driving them—shifting global trust, central bank moves, and macro uncertainty—aren’t going away.

In the end, Puplava’s take is both grounded and optimistic: Stay tactical, stay patient, and don’t lose sight of the new era that may be unfolding for precious metals.

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