We kicked off the day with S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index MoM & YoY, House Price Index, and House Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., Fed Kashkari Speech at 8:55 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction, 3-Month Bill Auction, 42-Day Bill Auction, and 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 5-Year Note Auction and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Fed Cook & Fed Daly Speech at 12:05, and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.

Photo by Jesse Gardner on Unsplash

We start off the short week with US weather a key and forecasts call for mostly dry in the Midwest with showers targeting the Plains in a much-needed mode from recent dryness for crops. The rain starts across Texas today along with more tornadoes with showers spreading northward into Nebraska by Wednesday. The entire Plains look to receive 1-2.50” of rain with localized areas picking up as much as 3-4.00”. The Central Plains rain will be the best in months and help summer row crop yield potential. Unlike recent years, the Plain’s rain provides a boost in soil moisture that favors crop yield. After today the West Midwest will not see rain until late Thursday which spreads eastward into the weekend. Spring seeding will advance near completion with soil moisture in its best levels since 2019. The overall pattern features shower chances every 4-5 days with near normal temperatures. The 2-Week Central US weather forecast leans favorable into mid-June.

The grains came in mixed with wheat futures pushed to new rally highs following Monday’s strong EU wheat rally in Paris. Russian wheat crop estimates are in decline and shower chances in the coming 10-days are not particularly good. A few lite showers are possible late this week, but the budding heat/dryness will tag Russian wheat and Ukraine corn crop estimates downwards. CBOT wheat values are adding weather premium to price accordingly. This is only showing little support in the corn following this weather news. Soybean and meal are lower on potential US soybean seeding expansion and a good start to the Central US growing season. And the political divide between the US/China is widening as both push for global economic supremacy. Soybean rallies will be labored on tepid Chinese demand.

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