We kickoff the day with Durable Goods Orders MoM, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM, Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM, and Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air at 7:30 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 8:35 A.M. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., Cattle On Feed, and Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M.

The Census Bureau reported that US sales of single-family homes in April fell 4.7% from March and were down 6.6% year-over-year. This was the first year-over-year decline in sales since March 2023. Rising new home sales had been partially offsetting the decline in existing home sales, which fell 2% from last year in April and have been negative for 33 consecutive months. Total home sales bottomed out in November and were unchanged or higher through February but were negative in March and April. Note that the February seasonal high was still 3% less than a year ago. Increasingly, the odds of Fed interest rate cuts are diminishing, and home sales volumes are expected to fall without sub-5% mortgage rates.

Soybeans gave back a portion of Wednesday’s gain, closing 7 cents lower in the old crop and 2 cents lower in the new crop. Soybean oil led the fall after testing the 50-day moving average. Traders were unsettled by China’s complete surrounding of Taiwan by military drills as Taiwan installed it’s new pro-independence president. US weekly soybean oil exports set a marketing year high of 45.5 Mil Lbs., while sales marked net cancellations of 2.3 Mil Lbs., following 4 weeks of sales that totaled just over 97 Mil Lbs. The US picked up export business in the last month as US prices converge with the world market. US soybean oil is within 1-2 cents of South America offers and 2-4 cents of palm oil quotes. This compares to premiums that were as wide as 30-35 cents last August. Traders will closely follow Chinese military drills around Taiwan heading into the 3-day holiday weekend. At the moment were looking to sell strong rallies in this holiday market. CBOT corn ended higher following wheat values an as the market has one eye on the duration of heat and dryness in the Ukraine. This is also Black Sea primary corn producing region. Low volume in corn, wheat, and soybean futures are hovering on either side of unchanged as traders prepare for the holiday weekend. Geopolitical events and world weather forecasts will direct CBOT prices as traders return next Tuesday. Traders will cut their market exposure accordingly.

Let’s remember and Salute all the Brave Men & Women serving our country!

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