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FTSE 100 rises, lifted by oil majors s oil prices jump

• Oil majors track oil prices higher after Trump’s sanctions
• UK PMIs & retail sales data are due tomorrow
• FTSE trades in an ascending channel close to a record high

50 is rising for a fourth straight session on Thursday, edging towards record highs, boosted by strength in energy stocks and upbeat earnings.

BP and Shell are among the top performers amid surging crude oil prices. President Trump ramped up pressure on Russia, sanctioning Rosneft and Lukoil in an attempt to end the war in Ukraine. Oil prices have risen over 3% pushing back above $60 per barrel.

In corporate news, Rentokil has risen almost 9% after the pest control firm reiterated its full-year outlook, showing improving U.S. sales momentum.

Burberry is also advancing over 4% beaten by strong results from sector peer Kering.

The FTSE rallied yesterday after UK CPI was cooler than expected, unchanged for a third straight month at 3.8%. The data fueled expectations that the BoE will cut rates again in December.

The UK economic calendar is quiet today. Attention will turn to tomorrow’s PMI data and retail sales figures for further clues on the health of the UK economy. Recent data has pointed to fading momentum and confidence ahead of the Chancellor’s November Budget.
 

FTSE forecast- technical analysis

The FTSE trades within a rising channel. Its recovery from the 50 SMA has extended gains above 9500 to 9520 at the time of writing.

Buyers, supported by the RSI above 50 will look to extend the bullish move above 9578 to fresh record highs.

Support is seen at 9350, the August high, and the lower band of the rising channel. A break below here opens the door to 9200 and 9110, the September low.

(Click on image to enlarge)

EUR/USD slips lower as renewed US-China worries support USD safe haven demand

• The US considers restrictions on software products for China
• US CPI data tomorrow in focus
• EUR/USD trades in a falling channel on the 4-hour chart

EUR/USD is holding steady below 1.16 amid moderate USD strength as US-China trade tensions heat up again, supporting flight to safe havens.

With the US government shutdown continuing and U.S. economic data scare, ship fakers remain on trade frictions. The US is considering curbs on software-related exports to China, reviving tensions between the world's two largest economies. The impact on the market has been modest, given that investors is still confident that the meeting between Trump and Jinping at the end of the month could lead to an extension of the trade truce

With no U.S. economic data due today owing to the government shutdown, attention is also on tomorrow's CPI figures, which are expected to show that inflation rose to 3.1% year on year in September, up from 2.9% in August. However, these numbers are unlikely to dampen expectations of a Fed rate cut in October.

The euro will lead to a speech by ECB chief economist Philip Lane as well as the release of eurozone consumer confidence figures later today.

Yesterday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos reiterated his stance. Believes that eurozone inflationary risks are balanced. The ECB is not expected to cut rates again anytime soon, which is offering support to the euro.

Tomorrow, attention will be on PMI data for further insight into the health of the economy.
 

EUR/USD forecast – technical analysis

On the 4-hour chart EUR/USD trades within a falling channel. The price recently faced rejection at the 200 SMA and rebounded lower, falling below the 50 SMA. This, combined with the RSI below 50, keeps sellers hopeful of further declines.

Sellers will look towards 1.1550, the October low, and the mid-point of the channel. Below here 1.15 and 1.1460, the lower band of the channel comes into focus.

Buyers will need to rise above 1.2630, the 50 SMA, and the upper band of the channel to extend gains towards 1.17, the 200 SMA.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

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