The New Nuclear Arms Race: Inside America’s Rush For Uranium Security
Image Source: Unsplash
The world is in the midst of an energy transformation, and nowhere is this more apparent—or more urgent—than in the nuclear and uranium markets. In a recent conversation with Financial Sense Newshour, uranium and nuclear analyst Mart Wolbert sat down with Cris Sheridan to unpack the latest twist in this high-stakes story: the United States’ push to build a strategic uranium reserve. As Mart explains, this is a pivotal moment, not just for uranium and nuclear investors, but for the future of American energy security.
See related podcast: Uranium’s Big Comeback: The US Strategic Reserve and the Nuclear Renaissance
The Strategic Reserve: A Game-Changer Few Saw Coming
For years, Mart Wolbert has been making the bull case for uranium: growing demand, supply constraints, and a global policy pivot toward nuclear power. But even for him, the recent U.S. announcement of a strategic uranium reserve was a surprise. “This was not something that was in pretty much anyone's models,” Mart shares. He saw it as “the proverbial icing on the cake,” adding fuel to an already roaring fire for uranium’s prospects.
Why is this so significant? Simply put, it’s about energy independence. The U.S. currently relies on Russia for about a quarter of its enriched uranium—the lifeblood of its nuclear reactors. “Turning that pipeline off too quickly or having it turned off by Russia itself risks knocking out a significant part of the grid without substitutes in place,” Mart warns. The new reserve isn’t just a headline; it’s a blunt admission that America needs to secure its own nuclear future.
From Shortages to Stockpiles: America’s Race Against Time
While the U.S. is taking action, it’s starting from a worrying position. According to recent data, the country has only 14 months’ worth of uranium inventory—far less than Europe’s two and a half years or China’s twelve. That’s a “very dangerous” spot, Mart says, especially since some utilities are better covered than others, but most are “below that average, which I think puts us in a critical time.”
More: Resource Wars & Supercycles: Navigating the New Era of Commodities
These thin reserves are the result of years of hesitation. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and waves of uncertainty from elections, tariffs, and Covid, utilities delayed new uranium contracts, relying instead on drawing down stockpiles and tapping long-term contracts. But those levers are almost exhausted. Now, with strong political support and life extensions for nuclear plants, utilities “will need to restock more inventory, which just adds more demand,” Mart explains. The squeeze is on.
Boom Times for Uranium—But Should Investors Be Cautious?
If you’ve been following uranium stocks, you know they have seen dramatic moves in both directions over the past few years. Companies like Uranium Royalty Corp have soared nearly 400%, and the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF has gained over 300%. Domestic suppliers in the U.S. have also benefited, riding a wave of policy support and soaring demand. For those who got in early, the returns have been extraordinary. Mart Wolbert notes that some trades, like call options on Energy Fuels, produced outsized gains — rare even in strong markets.
But with great excitement comes the risk of euphoria and overextension. Mart offers a note of caution: “Sentiment is red hot right now. I do bi-weekly sentiment analysis on the Codex, and it has helped us identify a few turns—it’s getting very hot now. I'm watching closely.” He predicts that a correction is likely, especially as markets digest the recent run-up and some investors take profits. “I expect a correction, but that should provide an opportunity—depending on how tradable it is—to hopefully reload.”
Mart’s advice is clear: near-term caution, long-term optimism. The fundamentals—a widening supply-demand gap, restocking by utilities, and a wave of new global nuclear projects—remain strong. But as with any commodity boom, volatility is part of the journey. The uranium market remains a space to watch—with both promise and the potential for sharp reversals.
Commodities, Geopolitics, and the New Cold War
The uranium story is just one chapter in a much broader and more dramatic global shift. As Mart points out, the scramble to secure critical materials—silver, oil, rare earth elements, and of course uranium—reflects a world where “trust is breaking down between the world's two largest powers.” The U.S. and China are both racing to lock down supplies, secure strategic reserves, and ensure their industries and militaries cannot be held hostage by foreign entities. It’s a resource arms race on a scale the world hasn’t seen in decades, echoing the infamous Hunt brothers’ attempt to corner the silver market—but now it’s entire nations, not just individuals, vying for control.
See The New Geopolitical Battlefield: China’s 30-Year Play for Rare Earth Domination
China, in particular, holds a commanding position in the supply chain for many critical commodities. “The processing part is dominated to the tune of 92%, with some rare elements 100% dominated by China,” Mart notes. That means any disruption—whether from tariffs, sanctions, or political maneuvering—can ripple through global markets and even threaten national security. “Basically, the moment China says, 'If you want to play hardball with tariffs, we'll scale down or stop [exports] immediately or put tariffs of our own on rare earth elements,' it immediately has a massive impact,” Mart says. That’s why the U.S. and its allies are investing heavily in domestic mining and refining, despite the costs. “If you need critical minerals, you need to mine them yourself or make sure you have a strong supply chain—otherwise, you'll run into trouble.”
The Rise of Hard Assets in a Trust-Deficient World
With central banks stockpiling gold and governments racing to build reserves of everything from uranium and copper to oil and rare earths, the era of easy globalization is giving way to a new age of resource nationalism. No longer are commodities simply about profit and market cycles—they’ve become synonymous with national security, strategic autonomy, and even geopolitical survival.
See related: Marc Chandler on the Dollar’s Next Act: Why the Greenback’s Best Days May Be Behind Us
Mart sees this shift as a defining feature of the current landscape. “Commodities,” he believes, “will remain in a strong trend, especially as we see a continued debasement and weakening of the U.S. dollar because it's used as a release valve for prevailing fiscal policy,” he explains. With the U.S. and China each seeking to reduce their exposure to the other—and with other nations following suit—hard assets are becoming the ultimate safe haven. “Hard assets will be the place to be,” Mart predicts, especially as governments around the world hedge against currency risk, geopolitical shocks, and the breakdown of old alliances. For investors, it’s a reminder that in a world short on trust, tangible resources may be the most valuable assets of all.
More By This Author:
This Week In Markets: Volatility, Trade Tensions, And Earnings Beats
Commodities, Chaos, And Cash Flow: The Case For Hard Assets
Retail, Banks, And Transports Are Flashing Red
Advisory services offered through Financial Sense® Advisors, Inc., a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through Financial Sense® Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. DBA ...
more