The gold and silver markets have been riding a strong bullish trend, and according to Jordan Roy-Byrne, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), the best is yet to come. 

In a recent interview on the Money Metals podcast with host Mike Maharrey, Roy-Byrne shared his insights on the trajectory of gold and silver, the role of technical analysis, and why he believes silver will soon outperform gold in the ongoing bull market.

(Interview Starts Around the 6:54 Mark)

Who Is Jordan Roy-Byrne?

Jordan Roy-Byrne is a seasoned market analyst specializing in technical analysis of the gold and silver markets. Roy-Byrne is a CMT (Chartered Market Technician) and MFTA (Master of Financial Technical Analysis), credentials that underscore his expertise in analyzing financial markets through technical indicators and historical patterns. 

He is the editor and publisher of The Daily Gold and The Daily Gold Premium, where he provides in-depth research on precious metals trends and mining stocks.

With decades of experience, Roy-Byrne has built a reputation for his data-driven approach to analyzing market cycles, intermarket trends, and historical price patterns. His insights are sought after by investors looking to navigate the complex world of gold, silver, and mining equities.

Beyond technical analysis, he integrates fundamental and macroeconomic trends into his research, allowing him to anticipate major shifts in the financial landscape. His expertise is particularly valuable in the current economic environment, where gold and silver are poised for a significant long-term bull market.

A New Book for a New Bull Market

Jordan Roy-Byrne recently released his book, Gold and Silver: The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun, in January 2024. While currently available as a free digital download, the book will soon be released as a hardcover on Amazon. 

He emphasized the importance of a hardcover edition, given the book’s heavy reliance on charts and visuals that may not hold up as well in paperback format. 

The timing of the book’s release couldn’t be better. Gold has already broken past the $2,100 per ounce level, signaling the start of a major secular bull market. 

According to Roy-Byrne, this is only the beginning, and investors should expect much larger moves in the coming years.

The Case for a Continued Bull Market

When asked for an “elevator pitch” on why the gold bull market will continue, Roy-Byrne explained that major asset classes—stocks, commodities, bonds, and gold—tend to move in secular trends lasting decades. 

Stocks generally move in cycles of 15–20 years, while bonds can trend for as long as 30–40 years. Historically, gold’s last two secular bull markets lasted about 10–11 years.

Right now, the bond market is in a secular bear phase, which is a rare event—only one such period has occurred in the past 100 years (1965–1982). Stocks are nearing the end of their long-term bull market, creating a setup reminiscent of the late 1960s and 1970s when gold and silver soared.

Gold has already confirmed its breakout from a 13-year cup-and-handle pattern, and once the stock market finally rolls over, we can expect an explosive move in gold, silver, and commodities.

The Power of Technical Analysis

Roy-Byrne, an expert in technical analysis, acknowledges that it often gets a bad reputation due to the overuse of flawed chart interpretations. However, he emphasizes that, at its core, technical analysis is simply the study of price trends, supply, and demand.

A key aspect of his approach is intermarket analysis, which examines relationships between different asset classes, such as gold versus stocks, gold versus bonds, and the gold-to-silver ratio. He noted that while fundamental analysis is essential, it can be highly unpredictable, whereas technical analysis provides a data-driven framework to assess market trends and turning points.

For example, by analyzing historical market cycles, Roy-Byrne can identify the conditions that typically precede recessions or inflationary periods—critical information for investors positioning themselves ahead of major macroeconomic shifts.

Silver’s Time to Shine

Silver investors have been eagerly awaiting a breakout, as the metal has been relatively range-bound for years. The gold-to-silver ratio remains high, sitting above 90:1, reinforcing silver’s relative undervaluation. However, Roy-Byrne believes silver is poised to outperform gold as the bull market progresses.

His reasoning is based on historical precedent: in every previous secular bull market in precious metals, silver has eventually outperformed gold. 

But so far, gold has not yet broken out significantly against the stock market or the traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds), a crucial indicator of where capital is flowing.

This year could mark a turning point. Once gold decisively outperforms conventional investments, more capital will flow into precious metals, benefiting silver in particular.

Roy-Byrne downplays industrial demand’s role in silver’s price action, asserting that silver is ultimately a monetary metal, driven by investment demand and its correlation with gold. However, he acknowledges that industrial demand is accelerating. 

David Morgan, a well-known silver analyst, has pointed to data suggesting that within the next decade, silver’s industrial demand could become so tight that a major squeeze—or even an attempt to corner the market—could emerge.

From a technical standpoint, silver is forming a 45-year-long base, one of the longest in history. When it finally breaks above $50 per ounce, Roy-Byrne predicts an explosive move higher, potentially reaching $90–$95 per ounce within 12–14 months.

The Importance of the Bond Market Shift

Roy-Byrne highlights an underappreciated trend: the ongoing secular bear market in bonds. 

Since 1965, bonds have only experienced one other secular bear phase, meaning that for 85 out of the past 100 years, bonds have trended higher or remained stable. Most investors today have never experienced a sustained bond market downturn, making this transition particularly significant.

He notes that while a near-term recession could spark a countertrend rally in bonds, the longer-term trend is clear: higher bond yields and declining bond values, which historically correlate with rising gold prices.

Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s Tightrope

Discussing monetary policy, Roy-Byrne agrees with Maharrey that the Federal Reserve is in a difficult position. On one hand, it needs to maintain higher interest rates to combat inflation. On the other hand, the economy is saddled with decades of easy-money-driven debt, making rate hikes unsustainable in the long run.

He doesn’t believe inflation is under control. 

Even if CPI moderates in the short term, the broader trend remains inflationary. Drawing parallels to the late 1960s and 1970s, he suggests that inflation will come in waves, retreating temporarily but surging again in the years ahead.

He also points to commodity markets as a leading indicator. 

Copper, for example, is on the verge of breaking out from a 12–13-year base, signaling inflationary pressures building up for the next decade.

The Key Indicator to Watch: Gold vs. 60/40 Portfolio

When asked about a market trend most investors are missing, Roy-Byrne highlights gold’s performance against the 60/40 portfolio, which represents the traditional mix of stocks and bonds.

Despite gold’s recent rise, it has yet to decisively break out against this benchmark. However, it is on the verge of a 10-year breakout, which would signal a major shift in capital flows—out of conventional assets and into gold.

Final Thoughts

Roy-Byrne’s analysis paints a clear picture: gold and silver are in the early stages of a major bull market. With stocks nearing the end of their secular uptrend, bonds in a rare bear phase, and inflationary pressures building, the stage is set for an extended run in hard assets.

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