The Great Silver Divergence: 2025 Versus 1980 - Manic Metals Report
Photo by Zlaťáky.cz on Unsplash
A breakout for the history books and won that many have been waiting for 44 years and just after started as a runner in the trading floor on the CME.
Silver’s surge past $50 last week didn’t just set record highs but reminded us of the wild days of 1980’s when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market and nearly toppled the global economy and, in the aftermath, gave unprecedented power of the silver market to the world’s biggest banks. Reports claim the Hunt brothers owned more than 100 million ounces of silver, nearly one-third of the global supply.
Banks paid billions to address the Hunt brothers’ margin calls and that bail gave those banks and instructions control over silver but know that control may be over. . At the time, in 1980, silver reached nearly $48 per ounce. This increase was primarily caused by Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt, who were responsible for driving up the price of silver by over 700%.
The Hunt brothers’ plan progressed as intended until the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) intervened. On January 7, 1980, approximately one week before silver reached its peak, COMEX implemented Silver Rule 7.
“Silver Thursday”—March 27, 1980—when silver futures on COMEX shot up to $50.35 an ounce. Panic was the order of the day, with the Hunts gobbling up nearly a third of the world’s non-government silver. The fallout? Outrage, new regulations, and a price collapse so fierce it cut silver in half in just days, leaving a trail of bankruptcies and a regulatory wake-up call that still echoes through commodity trading today.
The commodities market took a deep dive on Thursday, March 27, 1980. The Hunt brothers missed a margin call and Silver Thursday came to fruition. The price of silver began dropping and it plunged more than 50% in a single day – under $11 an ounce.
Their billions of dollars in assets quickly morphed into over a billion dollars of debt. This wasn’t only bad for the Hunt brothers; it also threatened the collapse of several investment firms and banks. To prevent the bottom from dropping out, multiple banks banded together to give the brothers a $1.1 billion credit line to cover their obligations, though they were now personally bankrupt.
Fast forward to 2025, and silver’s gone off the rails again—but this time, it’s not a couple of Texas oilmen moving the chess pieces. Now, it’s global shortages and surging demand from industries like solar and electronics that are lighting the fuse, especially over in Asia.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has taken center stage, pushing silver to $59–$61 per ounce—a solid $8 premium over what you’ll see on COMEX. Trading floors are hopping in Shanghai, and the rally isn’t just about wild-eyed speculation; it’s the real deal, powered by tight supply, industrial thirst, and policy shifts like Fed rate cuts and tightening export rules.
In 1980, the action was all about the West—COMEX was king, and U.S. headlines dominated the story. But in 2025, we’re seeing a true “East versus West” showdown, with Asia, and specifically Shanghai, calling the shots.
Out East, physical silver is commanding serious premiums over Western paper contracts, and the so-called “great divergence” is upending the old order. Sure, there’s a whiff of 1980’s feverish speculation in the air—but the engine driving today’s market is global industry, not a handful of market players. The liquidity has shifted and so has power.
No matter the year, one thing stays the same: scramble mode. Whether it was the Hunt brothers’ high-stakes game or today’s industrial squeeze, market participants are hustling to lock down silver—with all the regulatory headaches, legal wrangling, and headline risk that go with it. The 1980s gave us a crash course in what happens when the market gets out of whack—regulators cracked down, prices cratered, and caution became the new watchword.
In 2025, the story is still unfolding. Will this rally continue into 2026, or will another unexpected event send prices tumbling and force the market to adapt once again? One thing remains clear: every time the metals markets experience volatility, the effects are felt throughout global finance. The lessons from the Hunt brothers’ era are still relevant, but today’s silver surge is a different situation entirely, reminding us that in commodities, change is the only constant.
The gold-silver ratio has been particularly notable this week, starting around 79:1 on Tuesday and rising to 82:1 by Monday, as both metals hit all-time highs early on due to safe-haven demand driven by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and an ongoing government shutdown now entering its third week. Gold reached $4,127 on Tuesday, $4,187 on Wednesday, $4,208 on Thursday, spiked to $4,368 on Friday after touching $4,366 mid-week, then settled at $4,256 on Monday. Silver followed suit, trading at $52.47, $52.67, $53.05, peaking over $54 for a 14-year high on Friday before dropping 6% in its largest one-day decline in six months to close at $54.31, then moved down to $51.87. The ratio shifted accordingly: 78.7, 79.5, 79.3, 80.4, and 82.0, indicating gold was outperforming silver due to significant institutional safe-haven investment, while silver faced pressure from industrial supply constraints and profit-taking.
Year-to-date, silver has gained 53%, compared to gold’s 56%, but the ratio remains above historical norms of 40–80:1, largely due to Friday’s pullback amid a strengthening dollar, renewed tariff threats from former President Trump, and silver’s relative strength index (RSI) signaling overbought conditions at 76. Looking ahead, if industrial demand for silver rebounds with the projected 3% growth in 2025, we could see the spread narrow quickly. HSBC forecasts gold to average $3,455 next year and potentially reach $5,000 by 2026. Traders should stay vigilant and keep the ratio under 80 as a signal for potential silver buying opportunities.
Myra P. Saefong at Market Watch write s that gold prices are so high, even central banks are feeling FOMO Fear of Missing Out!She writes that “ Gold prices at record highs sounds like a broken record, but central banks have continued to buy more than they’re selling, even with prices for the precious metal at their highest levels ever.
“Central banks continue to be consistent and strategic buyers of gold, even at record prices, because of the role it plays in strengthening their reserve portfolios,” Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, said in comments sent to MarketWatch Friday. “For many, this is about diversification, stability, and long-term confidence in their holdings,” he said.
“In an environment of persistent geopolitical uncertainty, shifting interest rate expectations, and questions around the reliability of fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar, gold remains a trusted store of value that’s independent of any one government or financial system,” Cavatoni said. “We’re seeing a structural, not cyclical, change in how central banks view gold — as a key, liquid component of their reserves.”
Central banks around the world added 19 metric tons to their global reserves in August, according to data from the World Gold Council dated Oct. 3. That followed a month-to-month fall in July. Gold futures have climbed by nearly 60% this year.
More By This Author:
Hey I'm On, The Phone - The Energy Report
Transition Failure And Ratio Out Of Whack - The Energy Report
Exxon Versus The International Energy Agency - The Energy Report