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There seems to be a huge disparity in the outlook for global oil supplies, as the International Energy Agency not only doubles down on its call for a massive oil cut but decides to increase it.

Just how large that increase may be is unclear. On the flip side, Exxon CEO Darren Woods says that oil oversupply concerns are just short term in nature, but over the medium term, markets are going to be tight, and the industry does not have enough investment in the pipeline to comfortably meet future demand.

Yet, this debate rages on, and while OPEC leans more toward Exxon’s side, the market seems to be buying into the International Energy Agency’s argument—at least this morning—probably forgetting the fact that the International Energy Agency has been consistently wrong with its outlandish predictions in the past.

Exxon CEO Darren Woods has indicated that concerns regarding a potential oversupply of oil are anticipated to be temporary or dare to say transitory. He asserts that, over the medium to long term, the oil market is likely to experience significant tightening, largely due to insufficient current industry investment to adequately meet future demand. Woods further noted that U.S. shale oil production may soon plateau, as optimal drilling locations in the Permian Basin are increasingly scarce. For investors seeking stable stock options, Woods suggests considering large oil companies, which typically provide reliable dividends and robust cash flow, even amidst fluctuating oil prices.

Exxon’s Woods says Over med-long term, “markets will be tight” and industry doesn’t have enough investment in the pipeline to comfortably meet future demand growth.

He also cautioned that U.S. shale oil growth may soon plateau due to declining prime drilling locations in the Permian Basin.

Well, if people are looking for “safe “ stocks they should look at the oil majors who all have hefty dividends and ample cash flow even at current prices, according to Woods.

Conoco Philips CEO agrees saying that oil market is tighter than sentiment suggests. u ConocoPhillips CEO says expects oil prices at $70-$75/bbl in mid cycle.

U.S. shale oil production will flatten out if prices remain at current levels and will start to decline if prices languish in the $50s per barrel, ConocoPhillips (COP) CEO Ryan Lance said Tuesday, offering the latest prediction from an oil executive that slumping oil prices could curb U.S. supply.

“The breakeven probably hasn’t moved a lot,” Lance told the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha, according to Reuters. “Long term, if you’re going to see oil prices in a comfortable range – maybe in the 70s, or 65-75 – we will still see continued modest growth out of the U.S.”

But otherwise, Lance sees “plateauing production, probably by the end of this decade, coming out of the U.S., unless there’s going to be another technological breakthrough in our business.”

Lance’s comments came just days after Continental Resources CEO Doug Lawler said shale output growth plans are being sidelined for now as this year’s decline in oil prices curtails investment into the sector.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency ramps up the drama, saying the oil glut is even bigger than they bargained for—so much so, it’s starting to spill over onto ocean tankers worldwide.

In their latest monthly report, the IEA claims we’re heading for a record surplus, with global oil supply set to outpace demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day next year—something we’ve never seen before on an annual basis. Even when we shut down the entire global economy .

They’re Also dialing back this year’s demand growth just a touch, while ramping up expectations for non-OPEC supply both now and next year. With OPEC+ bringing more barrels back to market and non-OPEC rivals poised for a comeback in 2026, the IEA’s crystal ball is seeing plenty of oil sloshing around out there and maybe there is something sloshing around in their glass.

In fact, the International Energy Agency, which once declared that we should stop investing in fossil fuels altogether, now says that it is misunderstood.

The agency also explains why it disagrees so strongly with ExxonMobil and OPEC regarding how supply and how decline rates are determined, suggesting that ExxonMobil does not fully understand decline rates—or at least that is the inference.

Fatih Birol puts it bluntly: “The situation means that the industry has to run much faster just to stand still.”

Oil and gas The report from the IEA according to Forbes describes how higher decline rates for unconventional oil means that the amount of oil production that needs to be replaced annually has grown from 3.9 mb/d per year in 2010 to 5.5 mb/d per year now.

This is a reversal from the IEA’s earlier position that, in its Net Zero Emissions 2050 (NZE2050) scenario, no new fossil fuel mine and field developments were needed.

 Yet they say what they meant was that Investment in existing fields and deposits were still necessary.Though that is not what they said and why did it take them decades to clarify that.

Regardless That IEA along with trade war fears are weighing on oil.

Yet according to Reuters, it said that world oil supply is expected to closely match demand next year as the wider OPEC+ group increases production, an OPEC report showed on Monday, marking a change from last month’s outlook, which projected a supply shortfall in 2026.

OPEC+ is adding more crude to the market after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies opted to unwind some output cuts more rapidly than previously planned.

If you’re looking for signs that the economy is stalling out, OPEC’s latest monthly report says: it is not. ‘

According to their numbers, the world’s economic engine keeps humming along, and they’re still betting on global oil demand, climbing by 1.3 million barrels a day this year—with the pace picking up even more in 2026. That’s no small potatoes.

OPEC’s take? The third quarter of 2025 is still cranking out strong economic numbers, with upward bumps in growth for the U.S. and Japan, and powerhouse performances out of India and China.

It all adds up to OPEC doubling down on their call for stable, steady global growth. So, despite all the noise about surpluses and gluts, OPEC’s crystal ball sees plenty of fuel in the demand tank as we roll ahead. The market might be messy, but don’t let anyone tell you the world is running out of steam just yet.

So surplus or balanced market or undersupplied market. You make the call . I say glut fears do not match up with the reality of inventories.

Also, I don’t buy into the fact that the increase in floating storage indicates a growing gut especially when global Strategic Petroleum Reserves have been depleted have been depleted .

Floating storage should not be interpreted as evidence of an oversupplied market. Instead, it serves as a temporary solution when onshore tanks reach capacity or market conditions disincentivize immediate sales. Producers often store oil on ships, awaiting more favorable market opportunities.

For instance, during the COVID-19 downturn, nearly 200 million barrels were stored at sea; however, as demand recovered, these reserves were rapidly released into the market. Data from Vortexa and Kpler highlight that floating storage volumes tend to be transitory, differing significantly from scenarios characterized by persistent oversupply.

It is important to distinguish between operational logistics and signs of surplus. A substantial portion of oil at sea reflects strategic placement and readiness for prompt delivery to emerging markets such as Asia.

According to the EIA, between 2023 and 2024, approximately 10-20% of floating barrels were not surplus, but rather in transit or hedged for future delivery.

Market dynamics are further complicated by geopolitical factors, refinery disruptions, and trading strategies.

Sanctions affecting Russian and Iranian exports have led to longer shipping routes, increasing floating storage figures without indicating genuine oversupply.

.Bloomberg reported that hedge funds held around 50 million barrels in floating storage during 2024, even as global inventories declined.

Basically, when you see a spike in floating storage, it’s not a flashing warning sign that we’ve got way too much oil. Instead, it’s more like the market flexing and adapting to whatever’s happening—be it sudden disruptions or global events. OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical twists keep things interesting, but having oil stored at sea gives producers the flexibility to wait for the best moment to sell. So, floating storage is really a smart move, not proof that we’re drowning in surplus crude.

Natural gas it’s still struggling as forecasts have become milder, and we’ve dodged some bullets when it’s come to weather in the Atlantic.Fox Weather is reporting that Tropical Storm Lorenzo expected to take unique track around Atlantic Ocean According to the FOX Forecast Center, Lorenzo will likely perform an elongated clockwise loop in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, getting wrapped around a large area of high pressure, rather than tracking straight out to sea.

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