The week’s last trading session is light with reports today with Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M. and Cattle on Feed at 2:00 P.M.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index declined 0.5% in August to 98.4, the largest 1-month decline since April 2024, and the lowest index value since February 2015. Compared to a year ago, the index was 3.6 lower, marking a record large 38 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, without a financial recession being declared, thanks to massive government spending. Positive contributors  in August were the Leading Credit Index and the S&P 500 Stock Index. These were overwhelmed by negative contributions from Consumer Expectations for Business, average weekly hours worked in Manufacturing, building permits for private housing, the ISM New Orders Index, and average weekly initial jobless claims. The CB does not expect a recession in 2025, but estimated annual GDP growth of just 1.6%.

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Central US Weather Pattern Discussion

Soil Moisture Restoration Due in Eastern Midwest:

The Central US forecast has trended wetter across the Central & Eastern Midwest, with 7-day accumulation in MO, IA, MN, WI, and IL lifted to 1.00-1.75”. This will only marginally impact corn/soy yield potential there but does go a long way in replenishing topsoil ahead of SRW seeding in October. Any/all rain will be welcomed in IA and east of the Mississippi River during the autumn months as moderate to severe drought is now widespread across the mid-South and E Midwest. Additional rain is offered to the E Midwest and KY in the 8-14 day period. A drier pattern develops across the Central Plains & IA. Lasting threats to harvest progress are not indicated, and crops in ND, MN, and across Canada will be frost-free into Oct 2^nd. Weather after Oct 1^st only matters for winter wheat crop establishment.

Corn Comments & Analysis

Dec CBOT Corn Falls Below 100-Day Moving Average; Harvest Pressure Ahead; Argentina Active Planting New Crop:

Tik Tok talks continue today along with agricultural talks that will not go far with tariff legality questions down the road. The extremely large tariff purse is expected to be directed to farmers for well deserved financial assistance. What clouds the sky and muddy the waters is the Supreme Court decision of the legality of using tariffs. Although, I am not a litigator this should be a no-brainer that tariffs are legal. Corn markets globally ended weaker. The markets hyperfocus on US yield will soon fade. Corn that was not treated with fungicide is being harvested early which is why poor yields are being reported. However, the 80-85% of the US corn crop that is treated with a fungicide will yield above trend. The treated crop still has a tinge of green with starch being accumulated in kernels. The poorest are now being reported. ARC sees no reason to back away from a US corn yield of 184-186 BPA. When you have 98.7 Mil planted acres of corn, its impossible for supplies run out. The US corn market has never had to endure a harvest of 16.5-16.6 Bil Bu! US corn export demand has slowed since late August – when fob premiums in other markets weakened. ARC sees the WASDE US corn export estimate as 200-300 Mil Bu too large with China unlikely to return as a large importer in 2025/26. Argentine corn is 6% planted. Argentina are likely to plant additional first-crop corn to capitalize on recent surge in soil moisture. An Argentine 2025/26 corn crop of 56-60 MMT’s can’t be ruled out.

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