We kicked off the day with ADP Jobs Report at 7:15 A.M., Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, CPI, CPI s.a., Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:00 A.M, 10-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 12:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:L30 P.M.

The Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT’s) showed that the number of US job openings fall by 2.4% in July to 7.181 jobs, after falling by 4.6% in June. Compared to a year ago, the number of job openings was down 4.3% marking the 36^th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. The July job openings figure was the lowest since September 2024 and the 2^nd was also 2 Mil jobs less than the average trade estimate. The largest decline of 181,000 jobs was realized in healthcare and social assistance, followed by a 62,000 job decline in arts, entertainment, and recreation, and 13,000 job decline in mining and logging. Regionally, job openings fell the most in the South by 161,000 jobs, followed by 101,000 job decline in the Midwest. The West saw an increase in job openings of 113,000 people.

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Central US Weather Pattern Update

US Forecast Trends Drier in Eastern Midwest; Adequate Precipitation Forecast in West:

The principal forecasting models on Wednesday subtracted rainfall totals from areas east of the Mississippi River, and it remains that the moisture projected in the extended period falls get pulled into reliable 7-and 10-day forecast. Dey soil moisture loss targets IL, IN, OH, and MI into mid-Sep. On margin, yield ideas are in retreat from where they existed in early August. However, ARC cautions against expecting a major downward revision from USDA in September or even the October report. Crop – finishing rainfall lies ahead across the Central Plains, western IA, MN, WI, and KY. There will be no one event, but rather a series of lite rain events favor the western Corn Belt Sep 6-13.

South American Weather Pattern Discussion

The Drought Ends in Argentina, , Southern Brazil:

Heavy rain again materialized as projected across Argentina, Paraguay, and southern Brazil during the final days of August. Accumulation of 2” or more Aug 29-31 was spread across key areas of Cordoba, Buenos Aires & Santa Fe. Soil moisture ranking percentiles in Argentina & Paraguay, noticed surplus levels are present in most areas. Additional heavy rainfall in Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul in far southern Brazil over the next days. Water availability will not be an issue as row crop planting expands in late September. There’s not yet indication regular rain expands northward into Mato Grosso & Goias into Sep 18^th, but weekly climate guidance has been consistent in projecting the arrival of rainfall to N Brazil in the second half of the month. South American wheat yield potential is rising and could diminish export demand.

Corn Comments & Analysis

CBOT Corn Futures Fall, Cash Premiums Weaken Limiting Fresh US Corn Demand:

December CBOT corn high to 425 1/4/Bushel in Tuesday’s overnight session with selling being the feature in yesterday’s day session. The market had anticipated the fall of in US GD?EX ratings due to S Midwest and Delta dryness, but it’s the slowing US corn export demand that weighed on prices. Key for remainder of the week is whether December corn can hold the 50 day moving average at 4.14 ½. A close below this support would indicate a test of August contract lows. Brazil dropped their FOB corn basis by $.05/Bu while Argentina remains aggressive in offering corn to the world marketplace at $.85/Bu over. Note the interior US corn basis offered at $.17 under yesterday afternoon, equal to last year’s summer low. ARC looks for additional basis fall as a record US corn harvest strains storage availability. It’s the cash market that will pace the next decline in US corn values. ARC holds a bearish view with key support noted between $3.92-$4.00 December. StoneX will release its September crop estimate today.

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