S&P 500 bucked strong headline NFPs – the dip was bought at my preannounced 5,335 level, allowing fine intraday gains captures. Sectoral rotation view was, though, much less clear – tech, financials up while utilities, communications and discretionaries down. Weak and risk-off day in equities, with Russell 2000 standing no chance.

Little wonder with rate cut odds reversing their weeklong rise, and so abruptly. What strong services PMI didn‘t achieve, strong headline NFPs coming from birth-death model adjustments when business formation is down, participation rate down, unemployment rising, parttime being way stronger than fulltime, but hourly earnings up. Also the SME employment backbone on Wednesday showed weakness, leading me to conclude there is significant NFPs revision ahead.

It was, though, the real asset moves (gold, silver and copper) that caught everyone‘s eye – and I‘m diving into these in the following text, including CPI and FOMC predictions.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). 

Gold, Silver and Miners

Just how much of a decline opportunity before FOMC there is, is apparent from the below silver 4-hour chart accompanied by discussing the bottoming process. In absence of buyers emerging, undershooting remains a distinct possibility – Friday‘s volume was too heavy to ignore.

Summer months in precious metals are usually sideways and lean, but the strong spring shows that downside here is relatively limited compared to the forthcoming upswing in this range bound context of gold moving between low $2,280s and $2,450. The moments before CPI can provide such a brief trading opportunity.

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