In a reversal of uncertainty, S&P 500 repelled one serious intraday downswing, and rose on solid volume and market breadth improvements. The about to get tired move can continue into today‘s earnings aftermarket – with GOOG being the key one, followed by TXN (the latter one I expect to do better). Housing data and Richmond manufacturing are unlikely to upset equities much, yet it must be noted that rate cutting odds slightly retreated yesterday (no cut Sep has 6% odds now).

Based on the charts below (yields and S&P 500 market breadth), you can form your own opinion – as to the reversal‘s shelf life and best sectoral plays ahead. Let me just highlight select Bitcoin miners, out of which MSTR is most richly priced (call premium I mean, with COIN pulling up better). How about the dollar and what that means for industrials?

Way more details as usual in the individual chart section – suffice to add that latest real asset plays moved in line with my analytical expectations, be it gold and silver, or oil.

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

Also during Friday‘s opex and no key data releases, the momentum was down (it wasn‘t about MSFT-CRWD fallout) and market breadth improvements were insufficient. Next week, GDP and core PCE are the key macro turning points – I‘m sharing the weekly path ahead for indices in the premium section. Till then, we have just earnings and crucially guidance to rely on – and the ASML, TSM, AMZN with quite some financials were telling already.

Whoever guides lower or just barely meets expectations, isn‘t rewarded – and while some domestic oil companies are waking up, there can be no sustained push higher unless tech / financials lead. For now, earnings ahead aren‘t broadly questioned and rate cuts are celebrated – for now, we have to look at other leaders and take advantage intraday whether in futures or options.

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