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Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports that showed reduced production and ending stocks estimates. Weak demand is still a problem and export demand was trimmed in the supply and demand reports yesterday. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year but demand from other buyers has been good. There is more talk of a contraction that could develop in China and Cotton demand could be hurt if people have less money to spend on clothes. The heat is still extreme in the southern US and has yet to moderate. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.

Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.49 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 4,663 bales, from 4,463 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.60, 85.20, and 84.90 December, with resistance of 89.00, 90.80 and 91.20 December.

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and United States: 2022 and
Forecasted September 1, 2023
——————————————————————————————–
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production 1/
:————————————————————————–
Type and State : : : : 2023 : :
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 :———————–: 2022 : 2023
: : : : August 1 :September 1: :
——————————————————————————————–
: — 1,000 acres — ———- pounds ———- 1,000 bales 2/
Upland :
United States …: 7,131.5 7,879.8 942 773 778 13,998.0 12,776.0
American Pima :
United States …: 176.2 141.1 1,280 1,216 1,211 470.0 356.0
All :
United States …: 7,307.7 8,020.9 950 779 786 14,468.0 13,132.0
——————————————————————————————–
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.

Cottonseed Production – United States: 2022 and Forecasted September 1, 2023
—————————————————————————–
: Production
State :———————————————————–
: 2022 : 2023 1/
—————————————————————————–
: 1,000 tons
United States …: 4,415.0 4,001.0
—————————————————————————–
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Aug Sep
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 11.22 13.76 11.09 10.23
Harvested 10.27 7.31 8.62 8.02
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 819 950 779 786
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.15 4.05 3.70 4.25
Production 17.52 14.47 13.99 13.13
Imports 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 20.68 18.52 17.70 17.39
Domestic Use 2.55 2.05 2.15 2.15
Exports, Total 14.48 12.77 12.50 12.30
Use, Total 17.03 14.82 14.65 14.45
Unaccounted 2/ -0.40 -0.55 -0.05 -0.06
Ending Stocks 4.05 4.25 3.10 3.00
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 91.4 82.0 79.0 80.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 640 – 18 September 2023

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2023/24 Proj.
World
Aug 94.13 114.12 43.88 116.94 43.86 -0.25 91.60
Sep 93.18 112.39 43.27 115.88 43.27 -0.26 89.96
World Less China
Aug 55.77 87.12 33.88 79.44 43.76 -0.25 53.83
Sep 55.78 85.39 33.27 78.38 43.17 -0.26 53.16
United States
Aug 3.70 13.99 0.01 2.15 12.50 -0.05 3.10
Sep 4.25 13.13 0.01 2.15 12.30 -0.06 3.00
Total Foreign
Aug 90.43 100.12 43.88 114.79 31.36 -0.20 88.50
Sep 88.93 99.26 43.27 113.73 30.97 -0.20 86.96
Major Exporters 4/
Aug 39.43 57.07 2.17 33.71 27.28 -0.20 37.88
Sep 39.88 56.61 1.97 33.21 27.14 -0.20 38.31
Major Importers 8/
Aug 48.09 39.91 39.24 77.00 2.54 0.00 47.70
Sep 46.12 39.51 38.83 76.44 2.29 0.00 45.73
================================================================================
WASDE – 640 – 28 September 2023

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports that showed production in Florida near unchanged levels at 15.8 million boxes, from 15.7 million last month. Traders had been worried about a bigger increase in production. The track now keeps it away from the US. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. CitrusBR last week estimated stocks were estimated at 84,745 tons for last season. This was the lowest estimate since 2012 when data collection started and stocks were estimated below 100,000 tons. Production for next year is expected to drop a bit due to weather concerns. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for products around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 356.00 and 382.00 November. Support is at 322.00, 311.00, and 305.00 November, with resistance at 338.00, 344.00, and 350.00 November.

Utilized Production of Oranges by Type – States and United States: 2022-2023 and
Forecasted September 1, 2023
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of
harvest the following year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
————————————————————————————————–
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent
State and type :———————————————————————
: 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024
————————————————————————————————–
: —— 1,000 boxes —– —— 1,000 tons —–
Oranges :
California, all …………: 43,200 1,728
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 36,500 37,000 1,460 1,480
Valencia ………………: 6,700 268
Florida, all ……………: 15,800 711
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 6,150 277
Valencia ………………: 9,650 434
Texas, all ……………..: 1,130 48
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 570 24
Valencia ………………: 560 24
United States, all ………: 60,130 2,487
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 43,220 1,761
Valencia ………………: 16,910 726
————————————————————————————————–
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85;
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties
in Florida and Texas.

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on weak demand ideas. There is not all tht much going on in the market that could affect prices, especially to drive prices higher Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers. The Brazil harvest moving quickly and this fact has pressured prices. Vietnam is not offering much Coffee into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta with no offers from Vietnam in the world market due to very high domestic prices.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are very slightly lower today at 0.442 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 150.94 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 20 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,301 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 147.00, 145.00, and 142.00 December, and resistance is at 153.00, 158.00 and 160.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2390, 2350, and 2320 November, with resistance at 2460, 2480, and 2520 November.

Sugar

General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday on continued stressful conditions seen in Asian production areas. The Asian supply situation became more pronounced this week with dry weather the main feature. Traders are more worried about the lack of Sugar exports from India than they are about actual exports from Brazil. The Indian monsoon is expected to withdraw early this year and leave Sugarcane high and dry. Many growing areas have been dry, anyway. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential in this year of El Nino. Reports of offers from Brazil are still around but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil reports very good harvest conditions but the weather in Southeast Asia is currently dry. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2770 March. Support is at 2670, 2620, and 2600 March and resistance is at 2750, 2770, and 2800 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 721.00, 703,00, and 693.00 December, with resistance at 737.00, 740.00, and 744.00 December.

Sugarbeet for Sugar Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2022 and
Forecasted September 1, 2023
[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]
————————————————————————————————-
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production
:———————————————————————————
State : : : : 2023 : :
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 :—————————: 2022 : 2023
: : : : August 1 : September 1 : :
————————————————————————————————-
: — 1,000 acres — ———— tons ———— — 1,000 tons —
:
California 1/ .: 17.7 17.6 45.8 45.8 45.8 811 806
Colorado ……: 20.5 20.6 28.7 29.6 27.4 588 564
Idaho ………: 170.0 173.0 38.1 39.0 39.4 6,477 6,816
Michigan ……: 138.0 131.0 28.8 30.2 33.5 3,974 4,389
Minnesota …..: 431.0 438.0 25.7 29.0 29.6 11,077 12,965
Montana …….: 33.5 23.5 30.5 33.2 33.7 1,022 792
Nebraska ……: 39.6 46.0 24.2 28.3 28.7 958 1,320
North Dakota ..: 249.0 228.0 26.1 27.9 27.6 6,499 6,293
Oregon ……..: 7.9 10.4 33.9 36.1 37.1 268 386
Washington ….: 2.0 2.0 44.1 45.1 44.8 88 90
Wyoming …….: 27.9 28.5 29.1 28.9 29.4 812 838
United States .: 1,137.1 1,118.6 28.6 30.9 31.5 32,574 35,259
————————————————————————————————-
1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States:
2022 and Forecasted September 1, 2023
————————————————————————————————-
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:———————————————————————————
State : : : : 2023 : :
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 :—————————: 2022 : 2023
: : : : August 1 : September 1 : :
————————————————————————————————-
: 1,000 acres ———— tons ———— — 1,000 tons —
:
Florida …….: 401.9 398.0 44.6 46.4 45.5 17,931 18,109
Louisiana …..: 497.1 510.0 32.3 31.4 27.2 16,035 13,872
Texas ………: 31.2 19.0 22.6 23.2 21.3 705 405
United States .: 930.2 927.0 37.3 37.7 34.9 34,671 32,386
————————————————————————————————-
1/ Net tons.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Aug Sep
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1705 1820 2014 2159
Production 2/ 9157 9261 9203 8981
Beet Sugar 5155 5168 5073 5223
Cane Sugar 4002 4094 4130 3758
Florida 1934 1983 2034 2034
Louisiana 1944 2034 2054 1682
Texas 124 76 42 42
Imports 3646 3738 3465 3264
TRQ 3/ 1579 1869 1604 1604
Other Program 4/ 298 200 200 200
Non-program 1769 1669 1661 1459
Mexico 1379 1219 1486 1284
High-tier tariff/other 390 450 175 175
Total Supply 14508 14819 14682 14404
Exports 29 45 35 35
Deliveries 12578 12615 12705 12655
Food 12470 12500 12600 12550
Other 5/ 107 115 105 105
Miscellaneous 81 0 0 0
Total Use 12688 12660 12740 12690
Ending Stocks 1820 2159 1942 1714
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 17.1 15.2 13.5
================================================================================

Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight

Sugar
2022/23 Est.
Aug 964 5224 200 4444 1065 880
Sep 964 5224 254 4498 1065 880
2023/24 Proj.
Aug 880 5900 45 4589 1348 888
Sep 880 5800 45 4589 1248 888
================================================================================
WASDE – 640 – 17 September 2023

Cococa

General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Reports of diseases in West Africa that are hurting production continue. The diseases are from too much rain falling at this time. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.097 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 969 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3570, 3550, and 3490 December, with resistance at 3710, 3740, and 3770 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2990, 2900, and 2810 December, with resistance at 3080, 3110, and 3140 December.

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