COTTON

General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday in quiet trading and as the US government has continued to be shut down. There are no more USDA reports coming due to the closure.  The US harvest has started in most areas.  There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast with warm temperatures and a few showers and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  Bolls are opening and there is mostly no rain except for a few showers.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.

Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 70 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 64.30, 63.00, and 61.80 December, with resistance of 65.00, 66.10 and 66.60 December.

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FCOJ

General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday in trading as a US government shutdown continues.  Trends are still down on the charts.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida to lose trees.  Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 212.00, 206.00, and 200.00 November, with resistance at 224.00, 238.00, and 248.00 November.

COFFEE

General Comments: New York and London were both lower as the market waits for news of a Trump-Lula meeting.  Ideas are that it could happen at the ASEAN summit in late October.  Reports indicated that the weather in Brazil has improved and a meeting between Lula of Brazil and Trump of the US is expected soon.  Dry conditions have been reported in Coffee production areas lately and rains are expected to return over the next few weeks.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges as commercials have taken the supplies instead of buying in cash markets.  The lack of deliverable stocks in both markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market.  Reductions in deliverable stocks are starting to abate.  Vietnam has seen mostly good growing conditions but too much rain from some tropical systems has been reported in some areas.

Overnight News: The ICO average price is 329.77 ct/lb.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 368.00, 356.00, and 351.00 December, and resistance is at 393.00, 408.00 and 424.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up.  Support is at 4150, 4040, and 3910 November, with resistance at 4690, 4860, and 4980 November.

SUGAR

General Comments:  New York and London were higher yesterday.  Trends are still sideways in London, and trends in New York are sideways as well.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong.  Sugar production in the center-south region rose 15.72% in the first half of September compared to last year. The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1580, 1550, and 1520 March and resistance is at 1680, 1700, and 1720 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 450.00, 439.00, and 433.00 December, with resistance at 466.00, 470.00, and 477.00 December.

COCOA

General Comments:  Both markets closed higher on speculative short covering and on ideas that prices got too cheap.  Demand concerns in West Africa continue.  Both markets made new contract lows last week.  Bigger supplies are expected at West Africa ports soon as Ivory Coast has raised the farmgate price paid to farmers and they are expected to sell.  Ghana has also raised farmgate prices.  US demand has been weakening due to the increased prices inside the US from the Trump tariffs and world demand is thought to be weaker due to higher prices.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Ecuador is expected to become the second largest producer of Cocoa, replacing Ghana on the list.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 6020, 5940, and 5820 December, with resistance at 6870, 7140, and 7380 December.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 4160, 4040, and 5920 December, with resistance at 4690, 4830, and 4970 December.

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