COTTON

General Comments: Cotton was a little lower in quiet trading as the market tried to understand the new trade threats between the US and China and as the US government has continued to be shut down.  China is a major buyer of Cotton on the world market.  The US Dolar remains high and was a little firmer to hurt upside potential and demand ideas.  There are no more USDA reports coming due to the closure.  The US harvest has started in most areas and initial yield reports are positive.  There are still ideas that growing and harvesting conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast with warm temperatures and a few showers and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  Bolls are opening and there is mostly no rain except for a few showers.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.

Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 70 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 62.370, 62.10, and 60.90 December, with resistance of 64.40, 65.30 and 66.10 December.

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FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures were a little higher yesterday as a US government shutdown continues and as imports and esports remain hard to identify.  Trends are still down on the charts.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida to lose trees.  Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 200.00, 194.00, and 188.00 November, with resistance at 215.00, 224.00, and 238.00 November.

COFFEE

General Comments:  New York was sharply higher and London was lower yesterday on fears of dry weather over the last third of the month that could impact cherry set and development.  Ideas are that a Trump-Lula meeting could happen at the ASEAN summit in late October but nothing has been confirmed.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges, but the lack of deliverable stocks in both markets has supported the futures market.  Vietnam has seen mostly good growing conditions but too much rain from some tropical systems has been reported in some areas.

Overnight News: The ICO average price is 328.46 ct/lb.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up.  Support is at 382.00, 371.00, and 368.00 December, and resistance is at 408.00, 424.00 and 430.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4380, 4240, and 4120 November, with resistance at 4690, 4860, and 4980 November.

SUGAR

General Comments:  New York and London were lower yesterday.  Trends are turning down in both markets.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.  The prospect of a global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.  France’s farm ministry on Tuesday forecast sugar beet output in 2025 at 34.2 million metric tons, up from 31.8 million expected last month. This would be 5% above the 2024 harvest and 10% above the five-year average despite a fall in planted area.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 1520, 1490, and 1460 March and resistance is at 1610, 1650, and 1680 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 439.00, 433.00, and 427.00 December, with resistance at 454.00, 458.00, and 466.00 December.

COCOA

General Comments:  New York closed lower and London closed higher yesterday on currency considerations.  Demand concerns in West Africa continue.  Bigger supplies are expected at West Africa ports soon as Ivory Coast has raised the farmgate price paid to farmers and they are expected to sell.  Ghana has also raised farmgate prices.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  The grind data is expected to be released on Thursday.  Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast were down 52% between October 1 and October 12 against last year. GEPEX industry data published earlier showed the September cocoa grind in Ivory Coast, which vies with the Netherlands as the world’s top grinder, fell 38.6% year-on-year. The total 2024/25 season cocoa grind fell 9.9% year-on-year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 5580, 5460, and 5340 December, with resistance at 6070, 6440, and 6680 December.  Trends in London are down.  Support is at 4010, 3920, and 3800 December, with resistance at 4250, 4370, and 4700 December.

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