Softs Report - Wednesday, Oct. 13

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower on what was called long liquidation and perhaps some hedge selling from producers and mills. The USDA reports showed better production than anticipated but very good demand for US Cotton. Demand data was unchanged in the USDA reports yesterday. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and much above normal temperatures. The Southeast should see mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 103.17 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,162 bales, from 35,287 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 10740, 10680, and 10360 December, with resistance of 11400, 11520 and 11650 December.

assorted food in sacks

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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher in response to less production of Oranges shown in the USDA reports yesterday. The gains were moderate but were enough to push the short-term trends back to sideways. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near-normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas were too dry but have gotten good rains in recent weeks, and the rest of northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida is in the latter stages of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 119.00 November, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 134.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed sharply higher and London closed higher as forecasts for better rains for Brazil Coffee areas continue but as the rains have not really come as forecast so far. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures. The rains will be spotty on any given day but just about all areas will get some rain and some areas will get enough rain over the next week to promote flowering. New York has found support from the lack of Coffee available in Brazil after extreme weather events. It has been dry in Brazil and there has been a big freeze there. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are possible in Vietnam from a tropical system. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above-average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near-average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 1.914 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 178.91 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures today, then near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 221.00 and 238.00 December. Support is at 205.00, 200.00, and 195.00 December, and resistance is at 218.00, 224.00 and 230.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2180, 2210, and 2240 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday as the choppy and range-bound market continues amid tight supplies and reports of improving demand. Trends are still trying to turn up again on the daily and weekly charts. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim and that demand is increasing for both White and Raw Sugar. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there but the tight situation now must still be dealt with.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal. USDA said that Subarbeets were 28% harvested, from 20-% last week, 68% last year, and 45% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1950 March, and resistance is at 2040, 2090, and 2150 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 537.00 and 560.00 December. Support is at 516.00, 508.00, and 500.00 December, and resistance is at 527.00, 532.00, and 538.00 December.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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