COTTON   

General Comments: Cotton futures was lower on reports that Russia will pull its troops back in Ukraine to eastern areas it already controls from cities like Kiev in order to help with the peace talks now going on in Turkey and on ideas of Chinese import problems.  China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties.  Russia announced it was pulling back from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine in order to try to help conditions for peace talks in Turkey.  Ukraine has said it is willing to offer some concessions to Russia in return for peace, but what Russia will accept is still not known.  Russia will move back to eastern Ukraine that it already controls and could launch a new offensive in the near term if the talks fail.  The news sent Crude Oil futures sharply lower.  Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace.  Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.  China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.  Shanghai has asked office workers to follow a hybrid model used here in the US and is closing financial markets.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have isolated showers and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 136.50 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 144 bales, from 144 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives.  Support is at 13400, 13290, and 13040 May, with resistance of 14200, 14320 and 14440 May.

Photo by Trisha Downing on Unsplash

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was lower as speculative selling hit the commodities markets generally. This market followed all of the other markets lower amid the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine said it would propose that Russia keep the eastern areas it has already conquered, and that Ukraine would not join NATO in return for peace, but it is not known if the Russian would accept this.  Russia has said it will pull its troops back from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine in order to help foster better conditions for the peace talks now going on in Turkey.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.  Florida Citrus Mutual said FCOJ stocks are now 31% less than last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 144.00, 141.00, and 140.00 May, with resistance at 151.00, 154.00, and 156.00 May.

COFFEE 

General Comments:  New York was higher and London was lower with New York rallying with a stronger Brazilian Real but London caught in a trading range on the weekly charts on ideas of less demand from Ukraine, Russia, and China.  The lack of deliveries from Brazil and Indonesia are still supporting the futures market but the war is causing ideas of less Russian and Uranian demand and the return of Covid has the potential to really hurt Chinese demand.  Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil from the last year are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are increasingly available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.112 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 190.83 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 206.00 and 191.00 May.  Support is at 213.00, 210.00, and 207.00 May, and resistance is at 223.00, 228.00 and 231.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2060, and 2040 May, and resistance is at 2160, 2180, and 2200 May.

SUGAR   

General Comments:  New York was lower yesterday on hopes for peace in Ukraine.  Russia announced it was pulling back from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine in order to try to help conditions for peace talks in Turkey.  Ukraine has said it is willing to offer some concessions to Russia in return for peace, but what Russia will accept is still not known.  Russia will move back to eastern Ukraine that it already controls and could launch a new offensive in the near term if the talks fail.  The news sent Crude Oil futures sharply lower and hurt demand ideas for Ethanol.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed.  Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war, but others are still working there.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1890, 1850, and 1840 May and resistance is at 1920, 1940, and 1960 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 540.00, 537.00, and 525.00 May and resistance is at 552.00, 564.00, and 570.00 May.

COCOA   

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher again yesterday as the weather is improving for harvest activities in West Africa.  Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks.  Chart trends are sideways to up in New York and are up in London despite improved crop conditions and in part despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  Demand fears have eased as the rest of Europe is not harmed yet.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  The dry conditions in West Africa are now disappearing due to scattered showers in the region.  Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels, but Ivory Coast arrivals have been above year ago levels.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.693 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2590, 2540, and 2490 May, with resistance at 2670, 2710, and 2740 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1740, 1700, and 1670 May, with resistance at 1780, 1810, and 1820 May.