Softs Report - Wednesday, March 16

field of cotton trees

Photo by Trisha Downing on Unsplash


General Comments: Cotton futures closed a little lower on ideas of Chinese import problems and despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and as shipments of Crude Oil and products from Russia were interrupted.  That means higher Crude Oil prices and higher polyester prices for the world. Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward. China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The US Dollar has been moving higher in the past week due to the war and the stock market has worked lower. Short-term trends are still sideways but the market action is weak.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 116.46 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 572 bales, from 572 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total delivery for the month is now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 11670, 11540, and 11460 May, with a resistance of 12090, 12170, and 12310 May.


General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday as futures continue to recover from the limit down day last week. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida Mutual said that FCOJ inventories are now 30% less than last year in its latest Movement and Pack report.

Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near-normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and those total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 138.00, 134.00, and 131.00 May, with resistance at 144.00, 146.00, and 151.00 May.


General Comments: New York was much lower and London was lower yesterday as the chart trends turned down in New York. Futures in New York were weaker on weaker demand ideas as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and caused a lot of concern about demand for Coffee in the world in the future. Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil were also noted as a reason to sell. Coffee prices have been negatively affected, but most other agricultural futures are higher to sharply higher due to the war. The logistical and production problems in Brazil are still around. The dry weather and then they freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year. Containers are not available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.

Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 1.060 million bags. GCA stocks are now 5.765 million bags, from 5.795 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 186.85 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.  ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against delivery of March contracts and those total deliveries for the month are now 294 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 206.00 and 191.00 May. Support is at 210.00, 207.00, and 203.00 May, and resistance is at 221.00, 228.00, and 231.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2040, 2010, and 2000 May, and resistance is at 2120, 2160, and 2200 May.


General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday despite news from Brazil of reduced processing of cane and mills producing only ethanol and no Sugar and in reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential for the west to cut off Crude Oil exports from Russia. Plenty of White Sugar is available from India and Thailand, and India said its export pace is above that of a year ago. Exports are expected to be 7.5 million tons this year, from 7.3 million last year. Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia continue and there were hopes for progress for a settlement yesterday so Crude Oil was lower. President Biden indicated last week that Russian energy imports would be curtailed due to the war. The daily charts show that price trends are down for both markets. News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed. Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war, but others are still working there. Demand ideas for Ethanol are improving on fears that Russia might not be able to sell into the world market.

Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1800 and 1700 May. Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1810 May, and resistance is at 1900, 1920, and 1950 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 500.00 and 472.00 May. Support is at 510.00, 507.00, and 500.00 May and resistance is at 525.00, 532.00, and 538.00 May.


General Comments: New York and London closed lower and chart trends turned down as showers have returned to West Africa to improve crop conditions and in part because of demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t. The weather is generally too dry for West Africa and good in Southeast Asia. The dry conditions in West Africa are now disappearing due to scattered showers in the region. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 1.618 million tons, up 1.4% from last year.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 4.662 million bags. ICE NY said that 2 contracts were delivered against March delivery and those total deliveries for the month are now 751 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2500 and 2390 May. Support is at 2500, 2470, and 2430 May, with resistance at 2610, 2650, and 2670 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1160 May.  Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1670 May, with resistance at 1740, 1760, and 1780 May.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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