Softs Report - Wednesday, June 29
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday with July leading the way on demand fears and December a little lower on ideas of improving weather for the new crop Cotton. There continues to be talk of a big recession here in the US and around the world and prices for Cotton has been affected a lot by these ideas. Traders worry that the continued Chinese lockdowns will hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world. The US crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. The Indian weather is cooler and wetter and conditions appear good. Chinese demand was shown in the weekly export sales report. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are shut down again as Covid returns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 106.03 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 12,561 bales, from 11,990 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 18 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 28 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 91.00, 89.70, and 88.50 December, with resistance of 99.00, 103.00 and 108.00 December.
Photo by Anastasiia Chepinska on Unsplash
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday in recovery trading from the losses of last week. It was a gap higher day and trends are changing back to up. The fall has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 181.00, 194.00, and 197.00 July. Support is at 169.00, 167.00, and 163.00 July, with resistance at 182.00, 185.00, and 187.00 July.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday as the threat of a recession kept selling alive. The market is still worried about the threat of recession and what that might mean for Coffee demand. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse but the strong cash market means that even less Coffee is on offer. In fact, certified stocks in New York are becoming low. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America offering less as well. Temperatures are near to above normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.931 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 198.14 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 208.00 September. Support is at 216.00, 212.00, and 210.00 September, and resistance is at 222.00, 226.00 and 228.00 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2000 September. Support is at 2010, 1990, and 1960 September, and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2110 September,
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday in range trading. Crude Oil and petroleum products were also higher despite a stronger US Dollar. The Brazil Sugar crush improved from its previous totals but was below trade expectations. White Sugar supplies and production are expected to increase after being short recently. New York Raw Sugar and London White Sugar trends are now mixed on the daily charts as India is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane. It is turning most of it into Ethanol but some Sugar is making it into export channels. Sugar production from these countries is expected to be surplus or at least in line with demand. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1810, 1790, and 1760 October and resistance is at 1870, 1910, and 1960 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 538.00, 536.00, and 532.00 August and resistance is at 555.00, 565.00, and 570.00 August.
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday on weak demand ideas. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good midcrop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.540 million bags. ICE NY said that 343 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,017 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2390, 2350, and 2320 September, with resistance at 2470, 2480, and 2510 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1720, 1690, and 1680 September, with resistance at 1750, 1780, and 1790 September.
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