Photo by Jeff Hutcheson on Unsplash

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday in response to news of negative export sales in the weekly USDA report. A weaker US Dollar provided the best support. Some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months were hurt by cancellations made in the weekly reports. Covid is now widespread in China so the beneficial economic effects of the opening are being delayed. The people there do not trust the government vaccines. Demand has not been strong so far this year and the weekly export sales report last week was bad once again. Demand has not improved with the reduction in prices and a lower US Dollar to date. Production in the US is very short.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 84.28 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,901 bales, from 8,901 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.30, 79.80, and 78.80 March, with resistance of 87.40, 89.60 and 89.90 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday on long liquidation even with worries still around about freeze damage to crops this weekend from freezing temperatures and despite weakening demand ideas as domestic demand could be less with the holidays and end of the year coming very soon. Futures are within the trading range on the daily and weekly charts but look weak on the daily charts. The supply situation in the US and in the world market looks very tight. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place but are apparently part of the price structure now. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 202.00, 198.00, and 196.00 January, with resistance at 206.00, 210.00, and 214.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower yesterday with London closed. Producers remain quiet in Vietnam and most of Latin America and are likely to remain that way during the holiday period. Buying interest is also reduced, but the lack of offer has motivated the market to move sideways to higher. The Brazilian Real has been firming against the US Dollar and that has hurt offers from Brazil. Ideas of reduced Brazil production and reports of reduced offers into the cash market from Brazil and Vietnam continue, but the weather is good in Brazil and improving in Vietnam. There are ideas that production potential for Brazil had been overrated and reports of too much rain in Vietnam affecting the harvest progress. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.787 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 156.86 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 44 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,718 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 165.00, 163.00, and 161.00 March, and resistance is at 174.00, 177.00 and 183.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1930, and 1910 January, and resistance is at 1990, 2060, and 2100 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed lower yesterday with London closed. The biggest moves are made in the top step March contract for both markets in part on what seems to be strong demand against tight nearby supplies. The harvest has been delayed in Thailand. Australia and Central America harvests are also delayed. India is producing White Sugar mostly from Raws imported from Brazil, so the market is thought to be short Raw Sugar. Pakistan has lifted its ban on Sugar exports and now will allow up to 100,000 tons to be sold. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop but bad for harvest and loading at ports as it is still raining in production areas. World Sugar is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. Conab in Brazil now estimates Sugar production at 36.4 million tons Ethanol production is now estimated at 26.6 billion liters. Sugarcane production is estimated at 598.3 million tons, from 572.5 million in August and 578.8 million last year. Unica estimated the crush at 5.6 million tons, up 630% from last year, for the first half of December. Sugar production was estimated at 298,000 tons and Ethanol production was estimated at 482.6 million liters
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2160 March. Support is at 2030, 1980, and 1950 March and resistance is at 2080, 2120, and 2130 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 602.00 March. Support is at 564.00, 553.00, and 550.00 March and resistance is at 582.00, 588.00, and 594.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed slightly lower yesterday with London closed. Ivory Coast arrivals appear to have improved lately with the recent rally in futures prices. Ivory coast arrivals are now 1.172 million tons, up 14% from last year. The Ivory Coast Cocoa grind is now 113,803 tons, up 6.9% from last year. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Nigeria is reporting that Harmattan winds have arrived, but no significant effects are reported for now. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.157 mi0lion bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2700 and 2860 March. Support is at 2570, 2520, and 2490 March, with resistance at 2660, 2700, and 2730 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2160 March. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1960 March, with resistance at 2090, 2120, and 2150 March.

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