COTTON       

General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday as the US Dollar oved higher and Crude Oil and the US stock markets moved lower. There was talk about less demand for the market. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns. Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward. China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. Shanghai has asked office workers to follow a hybrid model used here in the US and is closing financial markets.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 134.82 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 144 bales, from 144 bales yesterday

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 13400, 13290, and 13040 May, with resistance of 14070, 14200 and 14320 May.

Photo by Jason Leung on Unsplash

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday and trends remain up on the charts. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida Citrus Mutual said FCOJ stocks are now 31% less than last year.

Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 165.00 May. Support is at 157.00, 154.00, and 151.00 May, with resistance at 163.00, 166.00, and 169.00 May.

COFFEE

General Comments: New York closed higher on ideas of less deliveries from Brazil producers and London was lower on ideas of less demand from Ukraine, Russia, and China. Selling has come from news that the Brazilian logistical problems are working themselves out and that deliveries are able to expand. The funds have been the best sellers. The war is causing ideas of less Russian and Uranian demand and the return of Covid has the potential to really hurt Chinese demand as cities and ports have shut down there. Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices. Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas.

Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 1.091 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 202.19 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 237.00 and 243.00 May. Support is at 228.00, 225.00, and 221.00 May, and resistance is at 236.00, 239.00 and 242.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2010 May, and resistance is at 2150, 2180, and 2200 May.

SUGAR               

General Comments: Both markets were stronger yesterday on higher Crude Oil futures. The US government has proposed to open the reserve in an effort to lower petroleum prices here and this affected Sugar due to the potential for reduced ethanol demand from the lower prices. Russia announced it was pulling back from Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine and has left a trail of atrocities in its withdrawal. News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed. Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war, but others are still working there. The Sugar trade could also be affected as both produce sugar beets. India has signed contracts to export 7.2 million tons of White Sugar so far this year. The government there is contemplating a cap of 8.0 million tons this year. India and Thailand expect improved crops this year. Thailand expects to produce about10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year. Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year but the strengthening Real implies that most of the refining will be for Ethanol and not Sugar.

Overnight News: Brazil will get isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1900 July, and resistance is at 1980, 2010, and 2040 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 532.00, 526.00, and 524.00 August and resistance is at 538.00, 541.00, and 544.00 August.

COCOA                                                                                

General Comments: New York and London were lower again yesterday as the weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week. Farmers there say that soil moisture conditions are good for the midcrop, but there are concerns that conditions are too dry overall for the bet yields. Chart trends are sideways now despite improved crop conditions and in part despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t. Demand fears have eased as the rest of Europe is not harmed yet. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year-ago levels but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 4.681 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2500 and 2400 May. Support is at 2490, 2450, and 2400 May, with resistance at 2600, 2650, and 2690 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1710, 1670, and 1660 May. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1750, 1770, and 1790 May.