Softs Report - Tuesday, March 19

field of cotton trees

Photo by Trisha Downing on Unsplash

General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher yesterday in moderate volume trading. It is too early to plant in Texas but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 88.89 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 36,657 bales, from 34,357 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 92.50, 90.90, and 88.10 May, with resistance of 96.20, 97.70 and 98.40 May.

General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower to limit down yesterday and the daily chart trends are mixed. Futures still appear to have topped out even with no real downtrend showing yet. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 300 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 360.00, 349.00, and 343.00 May, with resistance at 378.00, 389.00, and 391.00 May.

General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed a little higher yesterday on the back of a stronger US Dollar. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less with half a marketing year in front of them and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers due to currency considerations. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production and conditions are called good. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.516 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 185.04 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 56 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,253 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 180.00, 178.00, and 173.00 May, and resistance is at 186.00, 188.00 and 190.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 3420, 3520, and 3590 May. Support is at 3310, 3220, and 3100 May, with resistance at 3390, 33420, and 3450 May.

General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday on what appeared to be follow through buying from last week. Ideas of weaker demand are around the market and are causing some selling, but producers do not appear to be selling much. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas although Indian production estimates are creeping higher and one source there estimates production at about 34 million tons, from 32 million before. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Demand reports from Europe have been strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2250, 2360, and 2390 May. Support is at 2180, 21\40, and 2110 May and resistance is at 2260, 2290, and 2320 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 654.00, 676.00, and 698.00 May. Support is at 613.00, 604.00, and 597.00 May, with resistance at 638.00, 650.00, and 663.00 May.

Futures were higher again and kept the incredible rally going on production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.054 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 7710, 6980, and 6660 May, with resistance at 8500, 8620, and 8740 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 6520, 6040, and 5610 May, with resistance at 7000, 7120, and 7240 May.

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