Photo by Marianne Krohn on Unsplash
 

Cotton:

General Comments: Cotton was lower last week on what appeared to be chart-based speculative selling and still remains inside the trading range created since the beginning of November. Short-term trends are now down. Futures are still showing bad demand fundamentals as the weekly export sales reports have shown moderate sales at best. Some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months as Covid outbreaks should start to weaken as people get vaccinated or immune. Covid is now widespread in China so the beneficial economic effects of the opening are being delayed but these effects should start to be felt as the people there achieve immunity over the next week or two.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and below-normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated to scattered showers and near to above-normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below-normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.46 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,147 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8060 and 7670 May. Support is at 80.50, 80.00, and 79.80 May, with resistance of 83.50, 83.90 and 84.50 May.
 

FCOJ:

General Comments: FCOJ was lower last week, but rallied sharply on Friday to close well off the weekly lows after holding support near 128.00 on the weekly charts. Demand should start to weaken again as the northern Winter passes by. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and the conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US. Even so, the Florida Dept of Citrus reported that inventories are still 40.6% below last year at 102.39 million pounds.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 229.00, 220.00, and 214.00 March, with resistance at 236.00, 238.00, and 249.00 March.
 

Coffee:

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on higher differentials in Brazil. Producers are not offering right now and the market wants its coffee. Ideas of a big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have very good production this year due to a good growing season and less rain now as harvest expands again. There are ideas that the production potential for Brazil had been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year.
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 0.832 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 177.67 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near to above-normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 509 contracts were tendered for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 571 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 196.00 and 209.00 May. Support is at 183.00, 177.00, and 175.00 May, and resistance is at 189.00, 194.00 and 196.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2110 and 2170 May. Support is at 2070, 2050, and 2020 May, and resistance is at 2100, 2120, and 2140 May.
 

Sugar:

General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower last week in consolidation trading. Ideas are that the market has priced in production losses in India and Brazil and is providing remuneration for Indian and Thai exporters who want to sell. Thailand expects to export 9.0 million tons of Sugar in the current crop year, 7% more than last year. Ideas of better supplies coming might keep futures prices in check even with a rather tight nearby scenario. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south should turn dry again and so should some northern areas. There is concern that the rainy areas will stay too wet and delay the harvest and dilute the Sugar concentrations in the cane in central areas. The harvest is active in Thailand. Australian and Central American harvests are also active. European production is expected to be reduced again this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1960, 1940, and 1900 May and resistance is at 2000, 2030, and 2050 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 564.00, 557.00, and 549.00 May and resistance is at 574.00, 575.00, and 582.00 May.
 

Cocoa:

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as West African exporters are not offering. Wire reports suggest that exporters are currently looking for Cocoa to make good on current contracts and are not entering into new contracts right now. Trends have turned up in both New York and London. The talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid-crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Ghana has reported disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above-normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 5.113 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2730, 2740, and 2750 March. Support is at 2650, 2590, and 2530 March, with resistance at 2730, 2740, and 2750 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2120 and 2130 March. Support is at 2040, 2020, and 2000 March, with resistance at 2120, 2150, and 2180 March.

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