COTTON       

General Comments: Cotton futures closed a little higher yesterday in recovery trading and on mostly firmer financial markets. Ideas are that demand is strong for US Cotton right now.USDA showed a slight increase in production estimates and unchanged demand and ending stocks estimates. The weekly export sales report was very strong. The new Covid variant is expected to spread quickly but produce mild reactions but the demand concerns are there as China might buy less now. Chart patterns are sideways. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely hold at high levels for the future.US consumer demand has been very strong as well despite higher prices and inflation. Good US production is expected.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions with isolated showers possible on Friday and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 104.24 ct/lb.ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,007 bales, from 8,007 bales yesterday.ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 78 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 10530, 10350, and 10150 March, with resistance of 10950, 11080 and 11350 March.

Photo by Jason Leung on Unsplash

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday and trends are still sideways.USDA cut its Oranges production estimate last week but this was anticipated by the trade. Demand ideas were hurt here and around the world by the return of Covid induced lockdowns in Europe and the discovery of a new Covid variation in Africa. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain with more in the forecast and flowering is likely. Brazil production was down last year due to dry conditions at flowering time and then a freeze just before harvest. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. The Florida Citrus Movement and Pack report showed that inventories are still almost 16% below last year at this time.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 123.00, 120.00, and 119.00 January, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 135.00 January.

COFFEE 

General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower yesterday on damaging weather for Brazil Arabica areas and as the logistical and production problems in Brazil and Vietnam remain important.The dry weather and then the freeze have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year. The lack of Coffee available to deliver against contracts remains a factor and the cheapest Coffee for buyers is often at the exchanges.Containers are not available in Vietnam or in Brazil to ship the Coffee. Cherry pickers are hard to find in Vietnam due to Covid problems.Covid has also returned to Vietnam and now the rest of the world and could be a factor in interrupting shipments.Brazil also has limited amounts of Coffee available after bad weather at flowering time and then a freeze before the harvest got underway.Production conditions for the next crop in Colombia are not real good.Scattered to isolated showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and for Vietnam after big rains before.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 1.604 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 201.32 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 232.00, 228.00, and 224.00 March, and resistance is at 242.00, 248.00 and 252.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2360, 2330, and 2300 January, and resistance is at 2460, 2490, and 2520 January.

SUGAR               

General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower yesterday in range trading. Weaker production ideas in Brazil have supported futures to a large degree. Weaker demand ideas were still being caused by reports of new lockdowns in Europe as the Covid returns there and reports of a new variant discovered in Africa. However, the effects of the new variant are reported to be mild so the fears were less. The daily charts show that trends are still mostly up. Reports indicate that consumer demand has returned to the market. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. Ideas are that Indian producers and exporters are willing sellers above 20.50 cents. Processors in Brazil are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and this trend is expected to continue due to the relative price spreads. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market as cane production suffered last season.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2040, 2110, and 2170 March. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1900 March, and resistance is at 2000, 2030, and 2040 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 533.00 March. Support is at 508.00, 506.00, and 503.00 March, and resistance is at 516.00, 520.00, and 523.00 March.

COCOA

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on ideas that demand will improve soon. The return of the Coronavirus in Europe as well as the new variant found in Africa were the primary reasons to sell but are mostly part of the price now. Much of the selling came on ideas of weaker demand caused by the reports. Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around.  Some farmers want more rain for the best Spring harvest results. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 824,000 tons, down 10.4% from last year. Ghana arrivals ar now 132,000 tons, down 54.5% from last year.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near-normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are much lower today at 4.835 million bags.ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,303 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2550 and 2630 March. Support is at 2500, 2470, and 2420 March, with resistance at 2530, 2550, and 2600 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1720, 1760, and 1850 March. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1620 March, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1740 March.