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COTTON

General Comments: Futures were mixed, with nearby months a little lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. It is dry in western and southern Texas and the planting of Cotton is being delayed. Some showers are expected in western areas in the next couple of days to help there, but it is still dry overall. It has also been cold which has hurt any early establishment of the crops.

Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers today and Friday and below normal temperatures and the Southeast will get dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers later this week and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.53 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,536 bales, from 95,536 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8950 May. Support is at 8200, 8120, and 7990 May, with a resistance of 8560, 8660, and 8700 May.

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher and continued to break out higher from recent trading ranges on the daily and weekly charts as production of Oranges has been less this year. Only May futures closed unchanged as traders start to move positions forward. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is around and the increased vaccination pace means that the coronavirus is less. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal today, then near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 116.00 and 136.00 My. Support is at 112.00, 111.00, and 110.00 May, with resistance at 115.00, 116.00, and 120.00 May.

COFFEE

General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher. The main fundamental feature to the market is the weather in Brazil and the production prospects in the country. Some cooperatives and the export association are calling for a significant reduction in production with a 30% loss in production potential mentioned. It was dry at flowering time and has been dry again recently. It is also the off-year in the two-year production cycle. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America after devasting floods early in the growing cycle. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.

Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 1.894 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 120.96 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 129.00, 127.00, and 125.00 May, and resistance is at 134.00, 136.00, and 140.00 May. Trends in London are mixed up with objectives of 1380, 1410, and 1600 May. Support is at 1350, 1330, and 1310 May, and resistance is at 1370, 1400, and 1420 May.

DJ Uganda’s March Coffee Exports Jumped 19% as Plantations Matured
By Nicholas Bariyo

KAMPALA, Uganda–Uganda’s coffee exports posted a 19% rise in March, boosted by favorable weather and maturing plantations across Africa’s top exporter of the beans, the state-run Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Tuesday.

Total exports rose to 572,839 60-kilogram bags, compared with 480,961 bags during the same month the previous year, as farmers released more stock to the market, defying supply-chain disruptions blamed on the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.
March, the sixth month of the 2020-21 season, brought cumulative coffee exports since the start of the season to 2.9 million bags, up from 2.5 million bags of coffee exported in the same period last season.

“Increasing robusta exports during the month was on account of fruition of the newly planted coffee as well as favorable weather,” UCDA said in a statement. “This was also due to a positive trend in global coffee prices which influenced exporters to offload more coffee.”
Uganda, which exports mainly the bitter-tasting robusta coffee variety used in instant drinks and blends, expects exports to reach 7.5 million bags this season, from 7 million bags last season, as more coffee trees planted under the ongoing coffee-growing campaign enter the production phase.

SUGAR

General Comments: New York and London closed lower in correction trading. Ideas of stronger Ethanol demand helped support Sugar prices last week as the competition is back for crushing and refining use. Current Sugar demand is called average. Dry conditions were reported in Brazil. It is raining in south-central Brazil and the production of cane is looking good for the next harvest. The region has been dry overall so the rains that have fallen have been very timely. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. Traders are worried about a delayed Brazil harvest and lack of space at Brazil ports for Sugar shipments due to the high Soybeans shipments and delayed nature of the harvest of the Soybeans. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought-induced yield losses last year. Exports are expected by USDA to be higher in the coming year.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1670 July. Support is at 1610, 1580, and 1560 July, and resistance is at 1660, 1670, and 1700 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 464.00 August. Support is at 450.00, 442.00, and 439.00 August, and resistance is at 464.00, 468.00, and 469.00 August.

COCOA

General Comments: New York closed higher and London was a little higher. The grind data overall showed improved demand when it was released last week. The main crop harvest is over in West Africa and the mid crop harvest is active. Ports in West Africa have been filled with Cocoa. That is changing a bit as the governments of Ivory Coast and Ghana have given up on their fair wage scheme to try to tax exporters and buyers. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 4.703 million bags. ICE said that 22 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 133 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2510 and 2600 July. Support is at 2450, 2430, and 2400 July, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2570 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1620, 1610, and 1540 July, with resistance at 1670, 1690, and 1720 July.