Photo by Marianne Krohn on Unsplash
 

Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher yesterday on ideas of smaller US crops that should be seen in the USDA data that will be released at the end of the week. The export sales report was expected to be strong due to the recent move lower in prices. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year but demand from other buyers has been good. The weak demand from China could continue as China does not want to buy anything from the US for political reasons. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. However, there are also production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 55,300 bales this year and 11,000 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 15,600 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above-normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above-normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above-normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.62 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 35,126 bales, from 32,648 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 15 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 87.90, 86.90, and 86.30 December, with resistance of 90.80, 91.20 and 92.30 December.
 

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and daily chart price trends are up again. The market has been dynamic as traders are wary about selling futures due to the hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage crops in Florida again. Futures have stalled out in the last week as the hurricanes are missing Florida and are instead landing farther north up the coast. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported by forecasts for an above-average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. Florida Citrus Mutual said that inventories of FCOJ are now 44.5% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 350.00, 346.00, and 343.00 November, with resistance at 369.00, 371.00, and 374.00 November.
 

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday as the US Dollar rallied again. Demand for lower quality Arabicas has improved due to the recent price strength in Robusta, but the Vietnam harvest is now underway and growers there are reported to be excited to sell into higher prices seen currently. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. The Brazil harvest moving quickly and this fact has pressured prices. It is hot and dry in Brazil right now.
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.446 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 148.99 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above-normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 2 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,397 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 147.00, 145.00, and 142.00 December, and resistance is at 153.00, 155.00 and 157.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2430, 2390, and 2350 November, with resistance at 2500, 2550, and 2570 November.
 

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday as the US Dollar moved higher. There are still forecasts for rain in Brazil after a spell of very hot and dry conditions, but the market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains could still be a few weeks off but the rainy season should be under way soon. Chart trends are turning down with the price action so far this week. The Asian dryness is still the main feature. Many growing areas in India have been dry, and exports have indicated that production has suffered. The government there now says it will have more than enough production for the domestic demand but will limit exports to help control inflation. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil reports very good harvest conditions but the weather in Southeast Asia is currently dry. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production. European beet producers are reported to be less interested in planting this year due to environmental regulations imposed by the EU. The first half of September production is 3.12 million tons, up 8.54% from last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2600 and 2490 March. Support is at 2620, 2600, and 2540 March and resistance is at 2670, 2700, and 2730 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 701.00 and 674.00 December. Support is at 706.00, 704,00, and 693.00 December, with resistance at 720.00, 728.00, and 733.00 December.
 

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday as the UIS Dollar moved higher. Futures seem to be high enough in price for now and some speculators are taking money off the table. The charts suggest that a correction is underway and it is possible that futures and cash prices have gotten a little too high for the demand side of the market despite production losses seen during the growing season. The supply and demand situation remains bullish. Reports of diseases in West Africa that are hurting production continue. The diseases are from too much rain falling earlier in the growing season. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production. Ivory Coast exports are down 10% so far this marketing year at 1.305 million tons. The Cocoa grind in Ivory Coast is up 9% in August.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above-normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 4.990 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 3250 December. Support is at 3390, 3370, and 3300 December, with resistance at 3490, 3570, and 3600 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2920 and 2810 December. Support is at 2900, 2810, and 2760 December, with resistance at 3000, 3060, and 3100 December.

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