Softs Report - Thursday, Oct. 21
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were generally higher on a weaker US Dollar that kept export demand ideas alive and in the front of the market. Futures in Crude Oil were also higher and the US Dollar worked lower. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures but below normal temperatures this weekend. The Southeast should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then dry conditions and ear to above normal temperatures but below normal starting Sunday. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal. temperatures. The USDA average price is now 107.55 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 29,625 bales, from 29,625 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 391,800 bales this year and 63,900 bales next year. Net ima sales were 23,900 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 10840, 10640, and 10530 December, with resistance of 11110, 11290 and 11390 December.
Image by zanna-76 from Pixabay
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed was a little lower and chart trends remain down. The hurricane season has passed its peak and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are dropping by the day. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida is in the latter stages of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 117.00 November. Support is at 118.00, 116.00, and 113.00 November, with resistance at 125.00, 129.00, and 132.00 November.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday and trends are mixed in both markets. The nflation trade has come back to Coffee with supportive fundamentals. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and some flowering is expected. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are possible in Vietnam from a tropical system. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.904 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 183.67 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 200.00, 195.00, and 190.00 December, and resistance is at 215.00, 218.00 and 224.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2080, 2060, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2180 November.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher in nearby months on what appeared to be speculative buying as supplies of White Sugar are a little tight right now for the demand. Renewed talk of inflation coming to all commodities markets also supported the markets. Deferred months in New York closed a little lower on improved weather conditions for the net Sugarcane crop in Brazil. Trends are down on the daily charts in both markets and speculators are reported to be selling. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim and that demand is increasing for both White and Raw Sugar. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1880, 1830, and 1700 March. Support is at 1880, 1830, and 1810 March, and resistance is at 1930, 1950, and 1980 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 494.00 and 474.00 December. Support is at 496.00, 485.00, and 481.00 December, and resistance is at 507.00, 515.00, and 522.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower with most of the weakness once again in the front months. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support but ideas that demand will only improve slightly kept futures from making any rally attempt. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.373 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2470, and 2400 December. Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2400 December, with resistance at 2540, 2580, and 2630 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1710 December. Support is at 1740, 1700, and 1690 December, with resistance at 1770, 1820, and 1830 December
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