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Cotton

General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday in response to the WASDE reports. The reports were negative to prices as USDA left US demand alone and raised world ending stocks. Demand ideas are improving. Demand was very strong in the report the previous week and has been ramping up for the last couple of months, but fell off. Some ideas that demand could soon increase more as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of weeks. China has also started buying again from Australia after refusing imports from that country for political reasons. The charts show that futures held at a test of the lows formed since November but are still ion a range.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.23 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,147 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 87.70, 87.60, and 71.70 May. Support is at 80.90, 80.50, and 80.10 May, with resistance of 83.80, 85.40 and 86.20 May.

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday as USDA slightly raised Florida Oranges production estimates. The crop is still very short but thef size of the crop could be factored into the price now. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to the EU and is increasing its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US. The Florida Dept of Citrus reported that inventories are still 40.0% below last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 219.00, 217.00, and 215.00 May, with resistance at 236.00, 240.00, and 244.00 May.

Coffee

General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher. Differentials are now weakening in Brazil, Honduras, and Colombia as the rally has increased offers. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now. Vietnam is estimated to have very good production this year due to a good growing season. There are ideas that production potential for both countries has been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Vietnam is getting less rain now to aid harvest progress but volumes offered have not increased.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.767 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 174.83 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 620 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 175.00, 174.00, and 171.00 May, and resistance is at 183.00, 185.00 and 190.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 3300 and 3360 May. Support is at 2110, 2090, and 2070 May, and resistance is at 2170, 2190, and 2210 May.

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower on wsome speculative profit taking as Indian production remains a concern. Indian production is thought to be 33 million tons this year or less and the market has had to ration that supply via price. Thailand expects to export 7% more than last year and Brazil production is slid this year. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south has seen drier weather. There is concern that the rainy areas will stay too wet and delay the harvest and dilute the Sugar concentrations in the cane in central areas. European production is expected to be reduced again this year, with French planted area likely to decline to a 14 year low for Sugarbeets.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2160 and 2270 May. Support is at 2060, 2040, and 2010 May and resistance is at 2120, 2140, and 2170 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 601.00 May. Support is at 574.00, 566.00, and 561.00 May and resistance is at 591.00, 597.00, and 603.00 May.

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed lower as West African exporters are not offering. Wire reports said that a lot of Ivory Coast Cocoa is getting smuggled to other countries for export due to higher prices being paid. Trends are up in both New York and London. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Those ideas changed a little over the weekend due to heavy rains reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 5.054 million bags. ICE NY said that there were 0 notices posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 615 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2620 and 2500 May. Support is at 2700, 2660, and 2630 May, with resistance at 2790, 2810, and 2840 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2020 May, with resistance at 2150, 2170, and 2200 May.

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