Softs Report - Thursday, Feb. 22
Photo by Trisha Downing on Unsplash
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday and mostly recovered the losses seen the day before. The weekly export sales report showed solid sales and sales are expected to continue strong in the world market for the future. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. USDA in its Outlook Forum estimated Cotton planted area and production higher. Demand was also higher but ending stocks showed a slight increase. The charts indicate that trends turned up in the second half of last week. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 88.09 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 997 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 92.00, 91.30, and 88.60 March, with resistance of 96.00, 97.20 and 98.40 March.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. The daily chart trends ar3e mixed. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil, but held late last week as current supplies remain very tight amd only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 360.00, 347.00, and 340.00 March, with resistance at 373.00, 381.00, and 387.00 March.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot. Also, exchange inventories remain reduced at near 300,000 bags, indicating that futures are too far below cash values to entice people to register for delivery to the exchange. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is improving for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.307 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 185.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 457 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the m=month are now 642 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 182.00, 179.00, and 176.00 May1, and resistance is at 190.00, 194.00 and 199.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3060, 3010, and 2990 May, with resistance at 3140, 3170, and 3200 May.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed mixed to higher yesterday and the trends are turning down in both markets. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2130 and 2040 May. Support is at 2190, 2170, and 2110 May and resistance is at 2250, 2290, and 2340 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 592.00 and 572.00 May. Support is at 614.00, 601.00, and 586.00 May, with resistance at 645.00, 651.00, and 663.00 May.
COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday and kept the short term trends up. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Demand continues strong, especially from non traditional buyers of Cocoa. Ghana now estimates Cocoa production between 650,000 and 700,000 tons, the lowest production in 14 years.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.238 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 6310 and 6660 March. Support is at 5960, 5690, and 5450 March, with resistance at 6320, 6380, and 6440 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 5140 and 5490 March. Support is at 4780, 4570, and 4350 March, with resistance at 5120, 5180, and 5240 March.
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