COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday in correction trading before the USDA reports today. Traders expect production near 18.15 million bales, with exports at 15.42 million and ending stocks at 3.50 million. World production is estimated at 119.8 million tons and ending stocks are estimated at 88.14 million tons. Ideas of good US production continue as the weather is currently good. Showers are falling in Texas and throughout the major growing areas of the south. Ideas of strong demand continue but the weekly reports have shown more like an average demand. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. However, the expansion of the Delta variant has given pause to the better demand ideas due to fears of economies here and around the world starting to partially lock down again. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 87.75 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 85,932 bales, from 87,855 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 342,700 bales this year and 0 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 10,200 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9230, 9460, and 9680 December. Support is at 9030, 8890, and 8800 December, with resistance of 9250, 9300 and 9360 December.

Image by Jeser Andrade Arango from Pixabay

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher yesterday as Florida weather remains nonthreatening and the cold weather has passed in Brazil. Freezing temperatures have been reported in Sao Paulo in the last couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. The Atlantic is more active and a system is threatening western parts of the state this weekend. Some Orange groves could see excessive rain from this event. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition. Demand news has been bad with Nielsen reporting a third month of declining sales. The sales are now the weakest since the Pandemic began and are likely to head lower as the world and the US emerge from the pandemic.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers with big rains this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 134.00, 131.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 142.00, 144.00, and 147.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed about unchanged yesterday on the adverse weather for Brazil Coffee areas. Prices have stayed firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down. The freeze threat in Brazil has passed but the damage has been done. The government in Brazil estimates that 11% of the Coffee areas were affected. Temperatures are trending warmer with near to above normal readings expected. It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees. It is also harvest time and the crop is now 89% harvested. The current outlook calls for 10 days of dry weather which will not support the flowering either. Improved showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Little demand is showing for Vietnamese Coffee as containers to ship the Coffee are hard to find. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been a little dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.158 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 161.68 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 191.00 September. Support is at 177.00, 173.00, and 171.00 September, and resistance is at 190.00, 200.00 and 209.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1880 and 1960 September. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1730 September, and resistance is at 1920, 1950, and 1990 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher on fund buying as the temperatures have moderated in Brazil. Chart trends have turned up in both markets. The damage is there and UNICA noted less second half July production because of all the damage that the cane crops have sustained. Ideas are now that the Brazil processing and exporting season will end very early due to the freezes. Ideas are that the damage from previous freezes and drought episodes should show up in processing data for August as well. London has been the weaker market but has firmed a bit lately with the problems in Brazil and trends in this market could now be turning up. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic, but renewed Ethanol demand is now in doubt with weaker Crude Oil futures and covid pandemic fears as the Delta variant spreads.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1980 October. Support is at 1890, 1870, and 1840 October, and resistance is at 1970, 2000, and 2030 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 478.00, 485.00, and 509.00 October. Support is at 465.00, 460.00, and 454.00 October, and resistance is at 476.00, 480.00, and 486.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and trends remain up in both markets. London was the stronger market. Ivory Coast has forward sold 1.4 million tons of beans and has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. The grind data was released recently and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now. The weather has had below to rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 2.11 million tons, up 4.8% from last year. Ivory Coast processed 452,000 tons of beans by the end of July, down 3.6% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.654 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2520 and 2580 September. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2390 September, with resistance at 2550, 2590, and 2620 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1690 and 1720 September. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1610 September, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1750 September.