Photo by Jason Leung on Unsplash

COTTON        

General Comments: Cotton was higher again yesterday on dry weather forecasts for the Great Plains and on news that India has waived import taxes on Cotton until September.  India will now increase imports as world and US Cotton is now lower cost to importers.  Much of the western parts of the Great Plains have missed out on recent precipitation events and are likely to miss out again this week.  Production of the next US crop is at risk now.  There was talk about less demand for the market in part from Fed moves to control the inflation now seen in the US and around the world.  Traders are getting worried about a potential recession caused by Fed tightening.  China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties caused by renewed Covid lockdowns.  Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.  China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and bear to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 134.94 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,101 bales, from 1,101 bales yesterday.  USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 589,300 bales this year and 132,900 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 2,100 bales this year and 4,100 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 149.20 and 159.20 May.Support is at 13920, 13460, and 13160 May, with resistance of 14440, 14560 and 14680 May.

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ was sharply higher yesterday as the market now knows it is short Oranges and short juice production.  The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought.  Trends are still up on the daily charts.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good but it is drier now and some tree stress could develop soon.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.  Florida Mutual said that FCOJ inventories are now 32% less than last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives.  Support is at 174.00, 169.00, and 164.00 May, with resistance at 184.00, 190.00, and 196.00 May.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  New York and London were both lower again yesterday as deliveries from Brazil remain less than needed by the market and on ideas of less demand from Ukraine, Russia, and China.  Deliveries from Vietnam and Brazil Robusta are noted to be increasing but Robusta was following New York.  Brazil deliveries are able to expand, but the recent strength in the Brazilian Real is keeping producers from offering right now.  The Real as a little lower yesterday.  Less deliveries are reported from Vietnam now as producers have sold most of the crop and are holding the rest and waiting for higher prices, but the market is still flush from Vietnamese selling seen earlier in the year.  Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still around but flowering is reported to be uneven this year in at least some areas.   

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.077 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 198.24 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated to scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 238.00, 243.00, and 246.00 May.  Support is at 225.00, 221.00, and 217.00 May, and resistance is at 233.00, 238.00 and 239.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2060, 2010, and 2000 May, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2180 May[JS1] .

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York were lower yesterday and London closed higher.  The US government has proposed to open the reserve in an effort to lower petroleum prices here and this affected Sugar due to the potential for reduced ethanol demand from the lower prices.  It is also permitting refiners to blend 15% ethanol into the fuel mixtures instead of 10% for the coming Summer.  Russia has left a trail of atrocities in its withdrawal from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine with the ports basically closed.  Russia said it is still exporting from Black Sea ports.  India and Thailand expect improved crops this year.  Thailand expects to produce about10 million tons of sugar this year, up 33% from last year.  India said it could produce more than 9.0 million tons of Sugar.  Brazil could also have better Sugarcane production this year but the strengthening Real implies that most of the refining will be for Ethanol and not Sugar.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  India will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2030 and 2100 July.  Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1930 July and resistance is at 2040, 2070, and 2100 July.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 555.00 August.  Support is at 541.00, 535.00, and 532.00 August and resistance is at 552.00, 554.00, and 560.00 August.

COCOA                                                                                   

General Comments:  New York and London were lower again yesterday.  Daily chart trends are still mixed in New York and are now mixed in London.  The moves are coming before the grind data for the first quarter is released.  The EU will release its data today while Asia and North America are expected to release grind data early next week, The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but some are concerned about dry weather that could affect the yields for the midcrop harvest.  Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for several weeks, but the precipitation was less than normal last week.  Farmers there say that soil moisture conditions are good for the midcrop, but there are concerns that conditions are too dry overall for the best yields.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  Ghana arrivals have been below year ago levels but Ivory Coast arrivals are ahead of last year.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry condtions and above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.752 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2490, 2400, and 2380 May, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1700 May, with resistance at 1790, 1810, and 1820 May.