Softs Report - Monday, September 18

coffee bean lot

Photo by Mike Kenneally on Unsplash

Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed higher last week in range trading and despite a poor weekly export sales report. The USDA reports released on Tuesday showed reduced production and ending stocks estimates. Weak demand is still a problem and export demand was trimmed in the supply and demand reports. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year but demand from other buyers has been good. There is more talk of a contraction that could develop in China and Cotton demand could be hurt if people have less money to spend on clothes. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.39 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 6,229 bales, from 5,312 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.60, 85.20, and 84.90 December, with resistance of 88.60, 89.00 and 90.80 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 12, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 282,148
: Positions :
: 58,672 23,898 59,909 68,997 177,363 76,042 11,533 263,620 272,703: 18,527 9,444
: Changes from: September 5, 2023 (Change in open interest: -798) :
: -6,301 879 3,537 3,771 -4,438 -618 -1,278 389 -1,299: -1,187 501
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.8 8.5 21.2 24.5 62.9 27.0 4.1 93.4 96.7: 6.6 3.3
: Total Traders: 300 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 102 61 93 54 69 53 18 252 205:
——————————————————————————————————————-

 

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower last week despite the USDA reports released on Tuesday that showed production in Florida near unchanged levels at 15.8 million boxes, from 15.7 million last month. Traders are also wary about selling futures due to the hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage crops in Florida again. Hurricane Lee was the latest storm, but the track has kept it away from the southeast US. Another storm is forming in the Atlantic now to bring more risk to the start. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. CitrusBR last week estimated stocks were estimated at 84,745 tons for last season. This was the lowest estimate since 2012 when data collection started and stocks were estimated below 100,000 tons. Production for next year is expected to drop a bit due to weather concerns. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for products around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 322.00, 311.00, and 305.00 November, with resistance at 335.00, 338.00, and 341.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 12, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,322 :
: Positions :
: 1,147 6,150 1,117 24 35 4,308 443 500 688 1,080 2,488 :
: Changes from: September 5, 2023 :
: -58 -107 -31 24 35 26 -11 283 -73 53 347 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.3 49.9 9.1 0.2 0.3 35.0 3.6 4.1 5.6 8.8 20.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 7 10 4 . . 22 . 5 6 17 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

 

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as demand for Robusta improved along with a lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia. There is not all that much going on in the market that could affect Arabica prices, although demand for cheaper and lower quality Arabica is increasing due to the price differentials with Robusta. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers. The Brazil harvest moving quickly and this fact has pressured prices. Vietnam is not offering much Coffee into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta with no offers from Vietnam in the world market due to very high domestic prices. Some of this demand has shifted to lower quality Arabicas due to price spreads.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.445 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 154.44 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 60 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,391 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 147.00, 145.03, and 142.00 December, and resistance is at 158.00, 160.00 and 163.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2460, 2430, and 2390 November, with resistance at 2520, 2570, and 2600 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 12, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 225,986
: Positions :
: 30,817 55,851 56,702 62,776 83,222 65,756 21,263 216,051 217,038: 9,935 8,948
: Changes from: September 5, 2023 (Change in open interest: 4,453) :
: 767 -68 1,427 -351 1,778 1,749 532 3,591 3,669: 862 785
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.6 24.7 25.1 27.8 36.8 29.1 9.4 95.6 96.0: 4.4 4.0
: Total Traders: 375 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 86 98 109 108 46 29 301 283:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/12/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
127,032 59,241 68,407 2,296 5,267 2,295
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 46.6% 53.9% 1.8% 4.1% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 46 42 7 11 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
31,200 14,665 14,083 1,046 11,048 9,786
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.6% 11.5% 11.1% 0.8% 8.7% 7.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
44 18 15 10 10 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,085 1,481
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.6% 1.2%

 

Sugar

General Comments: Both markets closed higher last week as the market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas to keep chart trends mostly up. The Asian supply situation is more pronounced this week with dry weather the main feature, but Brazil is exporting. Traders are worried about the lack of Sugar exports from India. The Indian monsoon is expected to withdraw early this year and leave Sugarcane high and dry. Many growing areas have been dry, anyway. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential for this year of El Nino. Reports of offers from Brazil are still around but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil reports very good harvest conditions but the weather in Southeast Asia is currently dry. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2670, 2620, and 2600 March and resistance is at 2750, 2780, and 2810 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 729.00, 721,00, and 706.00 December, with resistance at 747.00, 750.00, and 753.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 12, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,287,476
: Positions :
: 205,598 67,382 295,377 430,531 793,244 252,565 82,117 1,184,071 1,238,120: 103,405 49,356
: Changes from: September 5, 2023 (Change in open interest: 36,344) :
: 6,964 1,534 -3,440 29,238 34,566 3,266 2,508 36,028 35,167: 317 1,177
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.0 5.2 22.9 33.4 61.6 19.6 6.4 92.0 96.2: 8.0 3.8
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 35 81 73 75 41 17 238 182:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/12/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
95,500 39,110 65,751 5,282 8,483 2,422
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 41.0% 68.8% 5.5% 8.9% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
133 41 49 7 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
32,780 4,240 4,600 753 2,419 4,657
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
34.3% 4.4% 4.8% 0.8% 2.5% 4.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 7 17 8 3 11
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,896 2,928
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.2% 3.1%

 

Cococa

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and at new highs for the move as the supply and demand situation remains bullish. Reports of diseases in West Africa that are hurting production continue. The diseases are from too much rain falling at this time. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.070 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3780 and 3900 December. Support is at 3640, 3570, and 3550 December, with resistance at 3770, 3800, and 3840 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3020, 2990, and 2900 December, with resistance at 3110, 3140, and 3170 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 12, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 443,495
: Positions :
: 101,323 37,855 156,210 108,741 214,458 63,869 25,401 430,143 433,924: 13,352 9,571
: Changes from: September 5, 2023 (Change in open interest: 8,815) :
: 1,544 870 8,318 -4,233 7,516 3,204 -7,995 8,833 8,709: -17 106
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.8 8.5 35.2 24.5 48.4 14.4 5.7 97.0 97.8: 3.0 2.2
: Total Traders: 262 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 63 87 44 45 33 18 218 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/12/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
471,093 258,568 285,534 17,179 62,275 45,099
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 54.9% 60.6% 3.6% 13.2% 9.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
166 44 41 14 11 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
70,107 4,127 15,911 10,279 7,909 48,313
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.9% 0.9% 3.4% 2.2% 1.7% 10.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
49 7 25 14 17 24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,637 1,925
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.4%


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Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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