COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little lower last week but a little higher on Friday after the release of the USDA reports. It was a sell the rumor and buy the fact situation. Part of the selling was in preparation for the big USDA reports that found a significant increase in production potential for US Cotton. Export demand was also increased significantly to offset the production gains. Ending stocks were increased significantly anyway. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. However, the expansion of the Delta variant has given pause to the better demand ideas due to fears of economies here and around the world starting to partially lock down again. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months. Even so, good US production totals are expected.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 91.41 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 64,455 bales, from 64,455 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 9200, 9180, and 9160 Decmber, with resistance of 9370, 9510 and 9600 December.

Image by Ulrike Leone from Pixabay

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher on Friday and higher for the week and chart trends are still mostly up on weather concerns, especially for Brazil but also for Florida and Mexico. A freeze hit Sao Paulo state several weeks ago and reports of significant losses are being heard. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 130.00, and 128.00 November, with resistance at 143.00, 144.00, and 146.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week as speculators appeared to liquidate some long positions and as chart trends started to turn down. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country and the expansion of the Delta variant that has caused so many problems around the world and is really affecting the Vietnamese. Prices in New York have been firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down with smaller production. The damage from the Brazil freeze several weeks ago is apparent. Some trees were killed and will have to be replaced. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been a little dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are s little lower today at 2.161 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 167.75 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,047 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 182.00 and 172.00 December. Support is at 182.00, 178.00, and 176.00 December, and resistance is at 191.00, 194.00 and 201.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2000, and 1950 November, and resistance is at 2100, 2120, and 2150 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week and the trends turned mostly down on the daily and weekly charts. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market, but the stronger US Dollar makes Sugar more expensive in local currency terms and the recently weaker Crude Oil prices mean that Ethanol prices will probably work lower. Wire reports suggest that Ethanol and Sugar prices are at parity so any lower Crude Oil prices now could mean that Ethanol prices move below those of Sugar. That idea is not seen in the latest UNICA data that showed a slightly greater percentage of Sugarcane processed for Ethanol than Sugar in the latest two week period. The ISO has noted that this will be the second year of deficit production for the world, in large part because of the Brazil freeze that cut production. Consumption of Sugar remains on the light side. Fears that the Covid is returning and could reduce economic activity and demand are around. The market is still working through a short supply. The freeze and drought damage is there in Brazil as industry sources have said to expect a short season for processing. Thailand is expecting improved production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1950 and 1880 March. Support is at 1940, 1920, and 1890 March, and resistance is at 2020, 2050, and 2090 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 486.00 December. Support is at 486.00, 481.00, and 476.00 December, and resistance is at 495.00, 504.00, and 508.00 December.