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Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed about unchanged last week as demand fears met supply expectations as the stock market made new lows for 2023 and is now negative for the calendar year. Ideas are that the US could be headed into a recession and cause demand to be soft. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness, but prices are supported by ideas of tight supplies here in the US and around the world. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. USDA will issue new production and supply and demand reports this week that are expected to show less production of US Cotton. There are also production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.

Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.43 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 40,737 bales, from 40,263 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 17 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.70, 86.30, and 85.60 December, with resistance of 88.90, 90.00 and 91.20 December.

From Bloomberg
2023-24: Avg Low High Sept. Avg vs Prior
US Production 12.91 12.50 13.50 13.13 -0.222
US Exports 12.10 11.65 12.43 12.30 -0.202
US End Stocks 2.96 2.80 3.25 3.00 -0.039
World Production 111.92 111.00 113.00 112.39 -0.467
World Consumption 115.61 115.00 116.00 115.88 -0.273
World End Stocks 89.70 89.30 90.40 89.96 -0.261

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 03, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 308,004
: Positions :
: 59,160 20,942 75,049 80,314 193,308 76,171 9,795 290,694 299,093: 17,310 8,911
: Changes from: September 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 11,360) :
: 5,190 -4,279 5,768 2,054 10,254 -1,539 -43 11,473 11,701: -113 -341
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.2 6.8 24.4 26.1 62.8 24.7 3.2 94.4 97.1: 5.6 2.9
: Total Traders: 305 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 107 72 104 53 66 49 15 258 212:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher last week and started a new leg up from the recent trading range. The market has been dynamic as traders are wary about selling futures due to the hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage crops in Florida again. Futures have stalled out in the last week as the hurricanes are missing Florida and are instead landing farther north up the coast. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. Florida Citrus Mutual said that inventories of FCOJ are now 44.5% less than last year.

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 415.00 November. Support is at 369.00, 366.00, and 359.00 November, with resistance at 386.00, 392.00, and 398.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 3, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,238 :
: Positions :
: 1,488 6,564 1,104 91 80 4,343 438 152 721 1,019 2,167 :
: Changes from: September 26, 2023 :
: 272 106 2 49 60 -93 3 33 -11 -17 -58 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 53.6 9.0 0.7 0.7 35.5 3.6 1.2 5.9 8.3 17.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 8 10 4 . . 21 . 4 8 18 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week, with most of the weakness in London on reports of improved the offers from Brazil and very good rains in Vietnam. Trends are still mixed on the New York daily charts but are down in London. It has been hot and dry in Brazil and the weather is starting to support the prices in New York. Light rains are now b3ing reported in central and southern growing areas. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas has improved. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest progressing and the US Dollar moving higher. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. These are moderating as the new harvest comes to the market.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.442 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 146.31 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 145.00, 142.00, and 139.00 December, and resistance is at 151.00, 153.00 and 155.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2320 November. Support is at 2340, 2320, and 2290 November, with resistance at 2260, 2410, and 2460 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 03, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 241,419
: Positions :
: 32,323 54,733 65,332 68,375 90,753 64,667 21,066 230,698 231,884: 10,721 9,535
: :
: Changes from: September 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: 16,909) :
: 221 6,329 6,562 8,248 2,986 1,004 925 16,034 16,803: 874 105
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.4 22.7 27.1 28.3 37.6 26.8 8.7 95.6 96.1: 4.4 3.9
: :
: Total Traders: 389 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 114 86 109 116 106 45 32 325 288:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/03/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
128,779 51,450 61,150 2,849 5,757 1,825
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 40.0% 47.5% 2.2% 4.5% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 45 41 8 10 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
37,036 17,436 12,374 1,368 13,470 14,062
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
28.8% 13.5% 9.6% 1.1% 10.5% 10.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 18 18 12 9 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,815 2,705
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.1% 2.1%

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed higher again Friday and trends started to turn up again on the daily charts. There are still forecasts for rain in Brazil after a spell of very hot and dry conditions, but the market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now, but showers have been light and scattered. The Asian dryness is still the main feature. Many growing areas in India have been dry, and exports have indicated that production has suffered. The government there now says it will have more than enough production for the domestic demand but will limit exports to help control inflation. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2740, 2850, and 2870 March. Support is at 2620, 2540, and 2520 March and resistance is at 2710, 2730, and 2790 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 729.00 and 753.00 December. Support is at 703.00, 691.00, and 687.00 December, with resistance at 712.00, 720.00, and 723.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 03, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,031,047
: Positions :
: 193,395 66,426 233,989 272,882 617,864 239,938 59,920 940,203 978,198: 90,844 52,849
: Changes from: September 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: -83,225) :
: -16,956 1,084 3,119 -59,639 -89,661 -6,808 1,149 -80,283 -84,309: -2,942 1,084
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.8 6.4 22.7 26.5 59.9 23.3 5.8 91.2 94.9: 8.8 5.1
: Total Traders: 230 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 40 71 61 63 39 21 207 166:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/03/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
92,566 38,978 64,970 6,896 3,933 2,443
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 42.1% 70.2% 7.4% 4.2% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
130 38 44 8 5 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,411 5,240 6,302 1,439 2,211 4,125
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
28.5% 5.7% 6.8% 1.6% 2.4% 4.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
37 9 17 5 9 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,972 3,342
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.5% 3.6%

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on what appeared to be speculative buying. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report good pod development. The supply and demand situation remains bullish. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.891 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3370, 3320, and 3270 December, with resistance at 3470, 3520, and 3570 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2920, 2900, and 2810 December, with resistance at 3060, 3100, and 3120 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 03, 2023

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 419,539
: Positions :
: 78,715 36,331 152,179 120,688 200,764 54,846 20,022 406,428 409,296: 13,110 10,243
: Changes from: September 26, 2023 (Change in open interest: -12,324) :
: -13,056 -3,718 -957 3,574 -6,494 -1,814 -950 -12,252 -12,118: -71 -205
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.8 8.7 36.3 28.8 47.9 13.1 4.8 96.9 97.6: 3.1 2.4
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 63 89 46 45 35 20 213 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/03/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
490,251 260,279 286,654 27,239 67,501 41,246
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 53.1% 58.5% 5.6% 13.8% 8.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
162 46 40 16 10 15
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
66,102 3,780 21,589 8,002 7,345 60,157
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.5% 0.8% 4.4% 1.6% 1.5% 12.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
47 6 22 16 13 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,637 1,979
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 0.4%

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