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Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed lower last week and trends remain down on the daily charts. Demand remains weak for this market with another poor week of export sales reported by USDA. Ideas are that the US could be headed into a recession and cause demand to be soft. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue, but prices are supported by ideas of tight supplies here in the US and around the world. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.

Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.11 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 58,785 bales, from 58,205 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 82.10 and 81.70 December. Support is at 83.70, 82.00, and 80.80 December, with resistance of 86.50, 86.80 and 88.90 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 304,013
: Positions :
: 45,399 26,102 80,941 88,476 174,506 73,388 11,290 288,205 292,840: 15,808 11,173
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: -5,107) :
: -11,882 2,836 2,748 5,905 -13,698 -1,465 1,427 -4,694 -6,688: -413 1,581
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.9 8.6 26.6 29.1 57.4 24.1 3.7 94.8 96.3: 5.2 3.7
: Total Traders: 310 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 93 92 114 56 63 50 16 263 225:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week, and the trends on the daily charts are up again as the market seems to consolidate just below the highs set in the last week or so. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. Nelsen said that retail prices are as high as they have ever been at $9.18/gallon. Demand is the lowest since 2001 at 24.08 million gallons for the four weeks ending on October 7.

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 373.00, 369.00, and 366.00 November, with resistance at 392.00, 398.00, and 404.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,881 :
: Positions :
: 1,804 6,622 1,042 50 0 3,752 432 181 828 852 2,696 :
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 :
: 343 303 -2 50 0 -255 -1 20 55 -112 418 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.0 51.4 8.1 0.4 0.0 29.1 3.4 1.4 6.4 6.6 20.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 62 :
: 9 10 4 . 0 18 . . 9 16 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on what appeared to be speculative and commercial buying tied to short covering. Trends are up in both markets. Light rains are now b3ing reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil and conditions are called good. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas remains strong. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest progressing and the US Dollar moving higher. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. These are moderating as the new harvest comes to the market.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.421 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 156.84 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 160.00, 155.00, and 153.00 December, and resistance is at 167.00, 170.00 and 173.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2550, 2530, and 2500 November, with resistance at 2610, 2650, and 2700 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 246,233
: Positions :
: 33,499 49,280 67,299 69,426 101,528 64,394 17,717 234,618 235,824: 11,615 10,408
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: -2,832) :
: 2,187 -6,439 -578 -4,525 7,635 323 -3,405 -2,593 -2,787: -238 -45
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.6 20.0 27.3 28.2 41.2 26.2 7.2 95.3 95.8: 4.7 4.2
: Total Traders: 374 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 81 113 110 107 46 29 319 281:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/17/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
131,199 67,500 67,363 2,312 4,303 2,038
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 51.4% 51.3% 1.8% 3.3% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 50 41 5 12 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
25,169 15,638 8,387 1,427 12,809 17,398
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.2% 11.9% 6.4% 1.1% 9.8% 13.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
38 17 17 11 11 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,968 3,263
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.3% 2.5%

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week and the trends are mixed for both markets on the daily charts. Little has changed with the fundamentals. There are still forecasts for and reports of rain in Brazil after a spell of very hot and dry conditions and this has delayed loading of ships. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now, but showers have been light and scattered. The Asian dryness is still the main feature. Many growing areas in India have been dry, and exports have indi84ted that production has suffered. The government there now says it will have more than enough production for the domestic demand but will limit exports to help control inflation. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Mexico is hot and dry and there are increasing concerns about production there.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2630, 2620, and 2540 March and resistance is at 2770, 2790, and 2810 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 725.00, 719.00, and 709.00 December, with resistance at 736.00, 750.00, and 755.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,086,989
: Positions :
: 204,357 67,861 253,282 289,646 652,620 239,926 64,136 987,212 1,037,898: 99,778 49,091
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 26,808) :
: 3,769 601 10,136 8,244 17,320 -1,572 945 20,577 29,002: 6,231 -2,194
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.8 6.2 23.3 26.6 60.0 22.1 5.9 90.8 95.5: 9.2 4.5
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 37 66 67 68 39 19 212 165:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/17/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
90,793 35,578 65,009 6,924 5,368 2,151
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 39.2% 71.6% 7.6% 5.9% 2.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
129 37 45 7 7 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
27,689 4,109 6,462 2,178 2,054 3,255
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
30.5% 4.5% 7.1% 2.4% 2.3% 3.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 6 16 6 7 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,556 2,385
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.2% 2.6%

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week, and the trends are still up in both markets. The EU grind data was stronger than expected and was down 0.9% from last year. Ivory Coast exports are down 10% so far this year. Arrivals at ports are 8.5% less than last year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report good pod development. The supply and demand situation remains bullish. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.661 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3800 December. Support is at 3600, 3580, and 3500 December, with resistance at 3700, 3750, and 3800 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3170, 3050, and 3000 December, with resistance at 3290, 3320, and 3350 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,086,989
: Positions :
: 204,357 67,861 253,282 289,646 652,620 239,926 64,136 987,212 1,037,898: 99,778 49,091
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 26,808) :
: 3,769 601 10,136 8,244 17,320 -1,572 945 20,577 29,002: 6,231 -2,194
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.8 6.2 23.3 26.6 60.0 22.1 5.9 90.8 95.5: 9.2 4.5
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 37 66 67 68 39 19 212 165:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/17/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
514,446 271,323 301,817 25,090 68,078 43,213
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 52.7% 58.7% 4.9% 13.2% 8.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
168 47 40 15 11 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
70,060 3,723 27,666 9,206 5,916 61,917
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.6% 0.7% 5.4% 1.8% 1.2% 12.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
52 4 24 15 14 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,971 2,116
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.4%

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