Softs Report - Monday, Oct. 25

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher after a week of choppy trading. Ideas of weakening demand due to weaker world economies hurt the futures market but demand has been very good in the world market. The weekly export sales report was strong. Futures in Crude Oil were also higher and the US Dollar worked lower. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast should see mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal. temperatures. The USDA average price is now 105.08 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 26,284 bales, from 29,625 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 10590, 10530, and 10350 December, with resistance of 11130, 11290, and 11390 December.

Image by Ulrike Leone from Pixabay

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week and chart trends are starting to turn up. The hurricane season has passed its peak and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are dropping by the day. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida is in the latter stages of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 117.00 November. Support is at 122.00, 118.00, and 116.00 November, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 134.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower Friday but London closed higher as some major storms are likely to hit Vietnamese Coffee areas through the end of next week. Trends are mixed in both markets. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and some flowering is expected. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are possible in Vietnam from a tropical system over the course of the next week. Some big rains are likely this weekend as well so some flooding is possible. No big winds are expected so the Coffee should not fall from the trees that much. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.911 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 180.40 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 195.00, 187.00, and 181.00 December. Support is at 195.00, 190.00, and 188.00 December, and resistance is at 204.00, 208.00 and 215.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2080, and 2060 November, and resistance is at 2180, 2210, and 2240 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were a little lower last week and trends are turning down on the charts for both markets. Supplies of White Sugar are a little tight right now for the demand but the Sugar appears to be out there. Renewed talk of inflation coming to all commodities markets also supported the markets. New York closed a little lower on improved weather conditions for the net Sugarcane crop in Brazil. Trends are down on the daily charts in both markets and speculators are reported to be selling. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim and that demand is increasing for both White and Raw Sugar. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1880, 1830, and 1700 March. Support is at 1880, 1830, and 1810 March, and resistance is at 1930, 1950, and 1980 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 494.00 and 474.00 December. Support is at 496.00, 485.00, and 481.00 December, and resistance is at 507.00, 515.00, and 522.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday in recovery trading but lower for the week. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support but ideas that demand will only improve slightly kept futures from making any rally attempt. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.368 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2470, and 2400 December. Support is at 2550, 2500, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2730 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1710 December. Support is at 1740, 1700, and 1690 December, with resistance at 1770, 1820, and 1830 December.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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