COTTON   

General Comments: Cotton futures surged to new contract highs last week on ideas that good demand can continue despite ideas of Chinese import problems. China has been buying even with the port closures and domestic difficulties.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and shipments of Crude Oil and products from Russia are interrupted and in fact are banned now in much of the west.  That means higher Crude Oil prices and higher polyester prices for the world.  Traders are worried about Chinese demand moving forward.  China has closed two ports for imports due to Covid and is also closing down a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation.  However, Shanghai said it would stay open and asked office workers to follow a hybrid model used here in the US.  The US Dollar has been moving higher in the past week due to the war and the stock market has worked lower.  It is too dry in west Texas and planting and initial growth could become difficult.  Short term trends are up.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures in the delta and near to below normal temperatures in the Southeast..  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 133.33 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 537 bales, from 537 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 138.00 May.  Support is at 13290, 13040, and 12710 May, with resistance of 13600, 13720, and 13840 May.

Photo by Trisha Downing on Unsplash

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher last week and posted a new high close for the move as the rally continued.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated very good.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and warm temperatures.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 154.00 and 165.00 May.  Support is at 148.00, 144.00, and 141.00 May, with resistance at 154.00, 156.00, and 157.00 May.

COFFEE 

General Comments:  New York and London were lower with London caught in a trading range on the weekly charts as the US Dollar and Brazilian Real both rallied and as a lack of deliveries from Brazil and Indonesia are still supporting the futures market.  Good growing conditions for the next crop in Brazil are still noted.  The logistical and production problems in Brazil from the last year are still around.  The dry weather and then the freeze in Brazil have created a lot of problems for the trees to form cherries this year.  Containers are increasingly available in Brazil to ship the Coffee.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.143 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 194.80 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered sowers.  Vietnam will see scattered showers

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 219.00, 210.00, and 207.00 May, and resistance is at 223.00, 228.00, and 231.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2060, and 2040 May, and resistance is at 2160, 2180, and 2200 May.

SUGAR   

General Comments:  New York and London were higher last week as these markets were influenced once again by the price action in Crude Oil futures.  Ethanol prices are currently lower than gasoline prices in Brazil.  Crude Oil rallied.  Current peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are yielding at most slow progress and that kept Crude Oil supported overall.  President Biden indicated a couple of weeks ago that Russian energy imports would be curtailed due to the war and now the EU is talking about banning Russian imports.  New sanctions on Russia have been imposed at the NATO meetings being held this week.  News reports indicate that little export activity is taking place from Ukraine or Russia with the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports basically closed.  Some of the oil giants have pulled operations out of Russia in response to the war, but others are still working there.  Traders expect bigger offers from India if the price stays strong.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2000 May.  Support is at 1930, 1900, and 1850 May and resistance is at 1990, 2020, and 2030 May.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 563.00 May.  Support is at 550.00, 540.00, and 537.00 May and resistance is at 560.00, 572.00, and 578.00 May.

COCOA   

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little higher last week but well off the highs of the week as what appeared to be speculative long liquidation hit the pits late in the week as the weather is improving in West Africa.  Some showers are in the forecast for West Africa and have been for a couple of weeks.  Chart trends are still up in New York and are up in London despite improved crop conditions and in part despite demand fears as Europe is the leading per capita consumer of Chocolate and demand could drop if the war in Ukraine expands or even if it doesn’t.  Demand fears have eased as the rest of Europe is not harmed yet.  The weather is good in Southeast Asia.  The dry conditions in West Africa are now disappearing due to scattered showers in the region.  Ideas are that demand will only improve slightly if at all and production in West Africa appears to be good this year.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.687 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2550, 2490, and 2440 May, with resistance at 2650, 2670, and 2710 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1650 May, with resistance at 1740, 1760, and 1780 May.